Dedicated users probably noticed that we soft-launched NFL forecasts a week ago, but today we're making it official. All NFL games for the rest of the season are now live on the site, each with three price forecasts—one for cheap, moderate, and pricey seats. Our forecast accuracy is over 80% (for those of you who are interested in the stats details, that’s using jackknife out-of-sample-testing), and will continue to increase as the model gathers more data.
As we refined our model, we’ve spent the last month poring over NFL ticket price data. In the process we’ve noticed a bunch of interesting trends. I hope to cover some of these in future posts, but here are a few interesting high-level tidbits:
- Green Bay Packers tickets sell at the highest premium, 298% of face value
- The NO Saints and Chicago Bears are second and third, with premiums of 243% and 242%, respectively
- At the other end of the spectrum, Oakland Raiders tickets have been selling for a mere 82% of face value
- Looking at historical data, the premium on Cowboys tickets have varied more widely than most other teams. Six years ago, Cowboys tickets sold for a solid 186% of face value, whereas they’re only going for 96% of face this season. Does that mean that no one wants to go to Cowboy’s games? Not necessarily—their shiny new $1.15 billion stadium drove up face values big-time, and is probably responsible for the effect.