Next Stop Tampa Bay: A-Rod’s 600th HR Prediction for Tropicana Field!

UPDATE – Alex Rodriguez just hit career home run number 600 at Yankee Stadium versus the Toronto Blue Jays on August 4th. The drive was to straight away centerfield and landed in Monument Park, where there are no seats for fans.

Currently, the Rays are in a battle for first with the Yankees in the AL East. Undoubtedly, the Rays are fortunate that A-Rod didn’t hit the home run during their recent series. Yet, fans in Tampa Bay and New York were unfortunately unable to cash in on the ball either, which was estimated to resale at more than $100,000.

Overview

Alex Rodriguez is still one home run away from 600 career home runs and we have the updated landing spot prediction for Tropicana Field! While he was three home runs away from joining the 600 Home Run Club, SeatGeek teamed with Hit Tracker and released a report in which the most likely section in Yankee Stadium where A-Rod may hit the home run was predicted, as well as the most likely seat – “The Money Seat”. Indians fans, however, were not able to witness history in Progressive Field, as A-Rod did not hit 600 in Cleveland. Now, the Yankees and A-Rod head to Tampa Bay, where they play the Rays at Tropicana Field for three games. We wanted to provide the fans with an updated prediction for Tropicana Field, where there’s a 54.3 percent chance HR number 600 will occur during one of the three games. Now we have the much anticipated report updated for Tropicana Field!

We have also included Rays ticket prices (check out this link to access our new Fan Sentiment profiles, and track A-Rod’s impact daily) for games during the Yankees versus Rays series, and a comparison between the prices of this series versus the price of tickets for the other series in which the Yankees play in Tampa (for reference, see the original Yankee Stadium report here, as well as the Progressive field report).

A-Rod’s 600th Home Run: The Prediction

Using the same methodology that he used before for Yankee Stadium and Progressive Field, Hit Tracker’s founder Greg Rybarczyk was able to predict the most likely sections in Tropicana Field, based on A-Rod’s scatter plot over the past 4.5 seasons, as well as the sizes of each section in the outfield. Again, if you want a shot at catching the milestone ball, we suggest grabbing a seat in one of these sections below that have the highest percentage chance of the ball landing there!

The most likely sections at Tropicana Field are: 1. Section 145 (13.0% chance) 2. Section 143 (11.7%) 3. Section 147 (11.7%) 4. Section 141 (10.6%) 5. Section 148 (6.3%)

A-Rod’s 600th Home Run: “The Money Seat”

Hit Tracker was able to predict an average path of flight for A-Rod’s home run balls while using their database of his home runs. The ball that travels along that pass was to land in Section 135, Row 18, Seat 6 in Yankee Stadium and Section 181, Row J, the aisle seat between sections 180 and 181 in Progressive Field. While the path concluded in an aisle seat in Progressive Field, “The Money Seat” for Tropicana Field is in the middle of a row – it’s Section 143, Row BB, Seat 9 (Note: in Section 143, the rows start at T, so Row BB is actually the ninth row). Please note that even though Section 145 has the highest probability by section, the single most likely seat is located in Section 143.

The Secondary Ticket Market Reacts

For this series, the average ticket price on the secondary ticket market is much higher than the season average for tickets at Tropicana Field. Undoubtedly, part of that is due to the fact that the Rays are playing the Yankees, and ticket prices for games when the Yankees are in town are higher league-wide (track Yankees ticket prices here). Yet it is also due to the fact that fans attending the game may have the opportunity to witness, and potentially catch, Alex Rodriguez’s 600th home run. The price for this series is 42 percent higher than the price of tickets for the series in April. Check out tickets for this series’ games below:

As the Yankees’ series in Cleveland winded down and it became more likely that A-Rod would come to Tampa Bay still one home run away from 600, demand for tickets for this series, which begins on July 30, increased greatly. The day before the series began, Rodriguez still had one game in Cleveland to hit 600 – on July 29 the average listing price for tickets for all three games was $63. On July 30, it was known that A-Rod would definitely be coming to Tampa with 599 career home runs, and listing prices jumped 34 percent, to $84!

A-Rod’s 600th Home Run: The Timing

The Yankees have three games in a row versus Tampa Bay, before they return to New York for a seven game home stand versus the Blue Jays and the Red Sox. It is likely that he will hit one in the next three road games – specifically there is a 22.3 percent chance he hits number 600 during the first game in Tampa, a 17.9 percent chance during the second game, and a 14.2 percent chance during the final game (Note: these percentages are as of 7/30; percentages for the following games increase after every game that he does not hit a home run). In the event that he does not hit a home run in Cleveland, we will have an updated report for Yankee Stadium. For Yankee fans, hang onto hope, there is now a 45.7 percent chance that he will hit his 600th home run in New York in front of the home crowd.

Summary

For the best shot at cashing in on A-Rod’s 600th home run, try to get tickets in Sections 145, 143, or 147
“The Money Seat” is located in Section 143, Row BB, Seat 9
The CF area in Tropicana Field has a 16.9% chance of A-Rod’s 600th HR ball landing there, although there is no seating or standing area there
Tickets for this series are averaging $75 per ticket, which is a 42% increase in price from when the Yankees played at Tropicana in April, and a 70% increase in price compared to the average ticket price for tickets throughout the entire 2010 season
As of July 29 (before it was known A-Rod would come to Tampa with 599 HRs), average listing price for tickets for this series were $63 (253% of face value). As of July 30 (when it was certain that A-Rod would be going for 600 in Tampa), average listing price jumped to $84 (320% of face value). The biggest jump was for Game One; $59 on 7/29 to $99 on 7/30 – a 68% increase
There is a 54.3% chance A-Rod hits his 600th home run during the upcoming series in Tampa Bay, and thus a 45.7% chance he returns home to Yankee Stadium still stuck at 599
A-Rods home run ball is expected to sell for between $100,000 and $150,000 at auction based on discussions with SCP Auctions
The person that catches the ball will likely turn a profit of over $100,000 if they decide to sell it at auction

Best of luck catching the ball. For further inquiries, reach out to justin[at]seatgeek.com.

About SeatGeek
SeatGeek.com is the only site that forecasts how sports and concert ticket prices move on the secondary ticket market and it allows fans to search multiple sites, discover ticket deals, and find sold out tickets. Follow us on Twitter @SeatGeek!

SeatGeek Catches Up With King of Ball Snagging Zack Hample

In the midst of SeatGeek’s coverage of Alex Rodriguez’s chase to 600 home runs and where the ball is most likely to land, we caught up with Zack Hample, a baseball fan, published author, owner of over 4500 baseballs, and one of the best ball snaggers in the world. Hample has snagged at least one ball in every game he has went to since 1993, including the last Mets home run to ever be hit at Shea Stadium, and Barry Bond’s 724th career home run. Given Hample’s pedigree, we thought it would be more than appropriate to get some pointers from him on how to catch A-Rod’s 600th home run.

For Hample, catching balls is all about lateral movement. If the ballpark allows for space to move left and right, Hample believes he has a good shot at snagging the ball. Standing room only sections in the outfield are the best place to be, since they allow the most movement and the opportunity to chase down the ball.

Some of Hample’s favorite stadiums include Camden Yards in Baltimore, Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City and Progressive Field in Cleveland – where the Yankees and A-Rod play this week.

While most fans were disappointed that Rodriguez couldn’t hit home run 600 on the Yankees past home stand, Hample probably didn’t mind.

Hample doesn’t like Yankee Stadium, because there are no cross-aisles, and no room to move laterally. While SeatGeek and Hit Tracker predicted that the most likely section that A-Rod would hit 600 in (Section 136) and the most likely seat (Section 135, Row 18, Seat 6), that information is not as useful for snaggers like Hample when in Yankee Stadium in comparison to other stadiums. If you are stuck in the middle of a row, you are constricted in your ability to move left or right to catch the ball. Instead, the ball must be hit directly at you in order for you to have a chance at catching it, which makes being in “The Money Seat” that much more important.

Hample has actually never caught a home run ball without having to move left or right to get to it. In fact, it really is more luck than anything else to catch a baseball that is hit right at you. Fortunately, “The Money Seat” at Progressive Field is an aisle seat – Section 181, Row J, the aisle seat in between sections 180 and 181. An aisle seat leaves room for whoever is sitting in the end to get up and run into the aisle to snag the home run ball.

Yet, even if A-Rod hits his 600th home run at Progressive Field but it is not near “The Money Seat”, fans still have a better chance at catching it in Cleveland than at Yankee Stadium in New York.

Progressive Field is much more fan friendly for ball snaggers, because there is much more area in the outfield for fans to try and get their hands on a ball. In addition to the bleachers, there is also the “Home Run Porch” down the left field line, a standing room only section and ball snagger’s haven. While Progressive Field has a lot of real estate, Yankee Stadium has less bleachers, and less room to catch a ball. For that reason, Progressive Field is one of Hample’s favorite stadiums, while Yankee Stadium is fairly low on his list.

Aside from the aformentioned, there are a few other factors that affect a snagger’s ability to get balls.

Stands layout (i.e., if there are cross-aisles and/or room to move laterally)
Standing room only sections which allow for maximum side-to-side movement
Whether or not security allows fans to move around the stadium
How crowded the stands are (more people equals more competition)

At this point, it is up in the air whether or not Hample will travel to Progressive. If he does, I’m personally pretty confident that he can come home with A-Rod’s 600th home run, provided the ball is hit remotely near him. Hample said he was only five feet away from snagging Ken Griffey, Jr.’s 600th home run, so it may be with a vengeance that he tries to snag Rodriguez’s 600th.

Hample has never sold any of the balls he has caught – he has either kept them or given them away to a nearby kid at the stadium. But what if he caught A-Rod’s 600th, which is predicted to resell for over $100,000?

“I would sell it”, Hample admitted. “I would give half of it to charity, buy my girlfriend a Mini Cooper, and then that would leave a little left for me.”

I guess for Hample it’s more about the thrill of snagging than it is the money.

Special thanks to Zack Hample for the interview. Zack is the author of “How to Snag Major League Baseballs” and “Watching Baseball Smarter”. While he snags baseballs as a hobby, he is also doing it for a good cause, and money is being pledged to the charity Pitch in For Baseball for every ball he snags in the 2010 season. Click here for more information.

Posts tagged Home Run