In the midst of SeatGeek’s coverage of Alex Rodriguez’s chase to 600 home runs and where the ball is most likely to land, we caught up with Zack Hample, a baseball fan, published author, owner of over 4500 baseballs, and one of the best ball snaggers in the world. Hample has snagged at least one ball in every game he has went to since 1993, including the last Mets home run to ever be hit at Shea Stadium, and Barry Bond’s 724th career home run. Given Hample’s pedigree, we thought it would be more than appropriate to get some pointers from him on how to catch A-Rod’s 600th home run.

For Hample, catching balls is all about lateral movement. If the ballpark allows for space to move left and right, Hample believes he has a good shot at snagging the ball. Standing room only sections in the outfield are the best place to be, since they allow the most movement and the opportunity to chase down the ball.

Some of Hample’s favorite stadiums include Camden Yards in Baltimore, Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City and Progressive Field in Cleveland – where the Yankees and A-Rod play this week.

While most fans were disappointed that Rodriguez couldn’t hit home run 600 on the Yankees past home stand, Hample probably didn’t mind.

Hample doesn’t like Yankee Stadium, because there are no cross sections, and no room to move laterally. While SeatGeek and Hit Tracker predicted that the most likely section that A-Rod would hit 600 in (Section 136) and the most likely seat (Section 135, Row 18, Seat 6), that information is not as useful for snaggers like Hample when in Yankee Stadium in comparison to other stadiums. If you are stuck in the middle of a row, you are constricted in your ability to move left or right to catch the ball. Instead, the ball must be hit directly at you in order for you to have a chance at catching it, which makes being in “The Money Seat” that much more important.

Hample has actually never caught a home run ball without having to move left or right to get to it. In fact, it really is more luck than anything else to catch a baseball that is hit right at you. Fortunately, “The Money Seat” at Progressive Field is an aisle seat – Section 181, Row J, the aisle seat in between sections 180 and 181. An aisle seat leaves room for whoever is sitting in the end to get up and run into the aisle to snag the home run ball.

Yet, even if A-Rod hits his 600th home run at Progressive Field but it is not near “The Money Seat”, fans still have a better chance at catching it in Cleveland than at Yankee Stadium in New York.

Progressive Field is much more fan friendly for ball snaggers, because there is much more area in the outfield for fans to try and get their hands on a ball. In addition to the bleachers, there is also the “Home Run Porch” down the left field line, a standing room only section and ball snagger’s haven. While Progressive Field has a lot of real estate, Yankee Stadium has less bleachers, and less room to catch a ball. For that reason, Progressive Field is one of Hample’s favorite stadiums, while Yankee Stadium is fairly low on his list.

Aside from the aformentioned, there are a few other factors that affect a snagger’s ability to get balls.

• Stands layout (i.e., if there are cross sections and/or room to move laterally)
• Standing room only sections which allow for maximum side-to-side movement
• Whether or not security allows fans to move around the stadium
• How crowded the stands are (more people equals more competition)

At this point, it is up in the air whether or not Hample will travel to Progressive. If he does, I’m personally pretty confident that he can come home with A-Rod’s 600th home run, provided the ball is hit remotely near him. Hample said he was only five feet away from snagging Ken Griffey, Jr.’s 600th home run, so it may be with a vengeance that he tries to snag Rodriguez’s 600th.

Hample has never sold any of the balls he has caught – he has either kept them or given them away to a nearby kid at the stadium. But what if he caught A-Rod’s 600th, which is predicted to resell for over $100,000?

“I would sell it”, Hample admitted. “I would give half of it to charity, buy my girlfriend a Mini Cooper, and then that would leave a little left for me.”

I guess for Hample it’s more about the thrill of snagging than it is the money.

Special thanks to Zack Hample for the interview. Zack is the author of “How to Snag Major League Baseballs” and “Watching Baseball Smarter”. While he snags baseballs as a hobby, he is also doing it for a good cause, and money is being pledged to the charity Pitch in For Baseball for every ball he snags in the 2010 season. Click here for more information.

A-Rod’s 500th Home Run Sold for +$100K – His 600th is Approaching and We Calculated Where at Progressive Field it is Most Likely to Land…

Overview

Alex Rodriguez is now one home run away from 600 career home runs and we have the updated landing spot prediction for Progressive Field! While he was three home runs away from joining the 600 Home Run Club, SeatGeek teamed with Hit Tracker and released a report in which the most likely section in Yankee Stadium where A-Rod may hit the home run was predicted, as well as the most likely seat – “The Money Seat”. Yankees fans, however, were not able to witness history in Yankee Stadium, as A-Rod did not hit 600 in New York. Now, the Yankees and A-Rod head to Cleveland, where they play the Indians at Progressive Field for four games. We wanted to provide the fans with an updated prediction for Progressive Field, where it’s looking like the milestone home run may occur. Now we have the much anticipated report updated for Progressive Field!

We have also included Indians ticket prices for games during the Yankees v. Indians series and prices for tickets in the most likely outfield sections (for reference see the original Yankee Stadium report here).

A-Rod’s 600th Home Run: The Prediction

Using the same methodology that he used before for Yankee Stadium, Hit Tracker’s founder Greg Rybarczyk was able to predict the most likely sections in Progressive Field, based on A-Rod’s scatter plot over the past 4.5 seasons, as well as the sizes of each section in the outfield. Again, if you want a shot at catching the milestone ball, we suggest grabbing a seat in one of these sections below that have the highest percentage chance of the ball landing there!

The most likely sections at Progressive Field are: 1. Section 182 (15.9% chance) 2. Section 181 (12.5%) 3. Section 183 (10.2%) 4. Section 184 (8.0%) 5. Section 180 (7.7%)

A-Rod’s 600th Home Run: “The Money Seat”

Hit Tracker was able to predict an average path of flight for A-Rod’s home run balls while using their database of his home runs. The ball that travels along that pass was to land in Section 135, Row 18, Seat 6 in Yankee Stadium. However, in Progressive Field, that path concludes in the aisle, specifically Section 181, Row J, the aisle seat between section 180 and section 181. The fan in the “The Money Seat” has the highest probability of catching the ball! Please note that even though Section 182 has the highest probability by section, the single most likely seat is located in Section 181.

The Layout of Progressive Field Gives Fans in the Most Likely Sections a Great Chance at Catching the Ball

We interviewed Zack Hample, arguably the best ball snagger in the world and author of two books on the topic included his most famous work ‘Watching Baseball Smarter‘ (please note we are not an affiliate). Hample has caught thousands of balls in his lifetime, including the last Mets home run hit at Shea Stadium and Barry Bonds’ 724th home run. In this interview, Hample stated, “Lateral movement is the key to catching home run balls and Progressive Field has a layout that makes this possible. As a result, Progressive is one of the  best stadiums to snag home runs.”

Progressive Field in Cleveland allows for more room to move left and right (as opposed to being confined to the seat you are sitting in), and thus gives fans who are not positioned in the exact seat more of an opportunity to catch the milestone home run ball. Aside from “The Money Seat” and Section 182, another good spot to wait for the home run ball is the party porch in left field (8.9% chance of the ball landing there), which is also known as the Home Run Porch.

Historically, seats in the most likely sections for A-Rod’s 600th to land at Progressive Field have transacted below the overall season average for tickets at Progressive.  The most likely section (182) has the lowest average transaction ticket prices of the three at 55% below the season average (section 181 is historically 47% below the season average).  As noted in the chart above, the average transaction ticket price for tickets in Section 182 at Progressive is $18.45, the section which has the highest probability of A-Rod’s 600th HR ball landing there, is $18.45. This is based on historical transaction data, but we also looked at the average current listing prices in this section to see the price that you could actually buy a ticket for today on the secondary market. Fortunately, it looks like you can still get into these sections for pretty cheap, which is great for fans looking to snag number 600 (much cheaper than what we saw for Yankees ticket prices). Check out tickets for these games below:

• Tuesday July 27, 2010 at 7:00 pm – Yankees at Cleveland
• Wednesday July 28, 2010 at 7:00 pm – Yankees at Cleveland
• Thursday July 29, 2010 at 7:00 pm – Yankees at Cleveland

As you can see, the secondary ticket market is not reacting much to A-Rod’s 600th home run out in left field, as you can currently get tickets in the left field bleachers below the season average and below face value in many cases. However, if you check out our new detailed team data pages, you will see that Indians ticket prices are overall much higher on average, which we would expect with the Yankees in town. Note that we do not have another Yankees at Cleveland series to compare to, so we can’t determine the incremental rise due to A-Rod’s imminent 600th.

A-Rod’s 600th Home Run: The Timing

The Yankees have four games in a row versus Cleveland, followed by three versus the Rays in Tampa Bay. It is likely that he will hit one in the next seven road games – specifically there is a 65% chance he hits number 600 in Cleveland. In the event that he does not hit a home run in Cleveland, we will have an updated report for Tropicana Field in Tampa Bay.  For Yankee fans, hang onto hope, there is just under a 20% chance that he has not hit number 600 before returning for the next home stand.

Summary

• For the best shot at cashing in on A-Rod’s 600th home run, try to get tickets in sections 181,182, or 183
• “The Money Seat” is located in section 181, row J, the aisle seat between section 180 and section 181
• Aisle seats are best, because they allow the best opportunity to move laterally throughout your section
• Sections 181, 182, and 183 are being listed below the season average for those sections and, in many cases, below face value
• A-Rods home run ball is expected to sell for between $100,000 and $150,000 at auction based on discussions with SCP Auctions
• There is a 65% chance A-Rod hits his 600th during the upcoming Cleveland series, making this the most likely stretch for the milestone to occur
• The person that catches the ball will likely turn a profit of over $100,000 if they decide to sell it at auction

Best of luck catching the ball. For further inquiries, reach out to justin[at]seatgeek.com.

About SeatGeek
SeatGeek.com is the only site that forecasts how sports and concert ticket prices move on the secondary ticket market and it allows fans to search multiple sites, discover ticket deals, and find sold out tickets.

UPDATE: Cleveland’s WEWS NewsNet 5 took our predictions with them to Progressive Field and interviewed fans in the bleachers. See what they had to say about their chances of catching A-Rod’s 600th, and what they would do if they caught the ball.

Right on schedule, Alex Rodriguez hit career home run number 599 last night for the Yankees versus the Kansas City Royals. Since the All-Star break, A-Rod has hit one home run every third game, and if he keeps up the pace, he will hit HR 600 on Sunday, July 25 in the final game of this Yankees home stand.

As seen in the Wall Street Journal, USA Today, Buster Olney’s ESPN blog, YES Network and more, SeatGeek and Hit Tracker have predicted where A-Rod is going to hit his 600th home run. Yankee fans and baseball fans alike have checked out the report, in order to ensure that they witness in person this historic home run, and maybe even catch the ball – if they are sitting in the correct seat or section.

SeatGeek and Hit Tracker has predicted that in Yankee Stadium, the section with the highest probability of the ball landing there is Section 136, and “The Money Seat” – the individual seat with the highest probability of the ball landing there – is Section 135, Row 18, Seat 6. See the full report here!

Meanwhile, SeatGeek has also launched a contest for a chance at free tickets to a game of the winner’s choice, up to $100 value. The terms of the contest have changed from the original rules. Now, fans can guess on Twitter or Facebook where they predict which section in Yankee Stadium A-Rod’s 600th home run will land in. The winner will be randomly selected amongst all of the correct entries, and will be announced after the milestone HR is hit.

To enter the contest on Twitter, click here to be redirected, and enter your prediction! If you entered the first time around, you will be eligible to win the original contest and will be automatically entered into this contest (you may also have one more guess…). For contest details, check out the original contest post.

Note: you must be following us on Twitter, or “Like” us on Facebook in order to be eligible to win.

As we wait for A-Rod to hit number 600, we have continued to update our data regarding the home run. As of today, there is a 54.3 percent chance that Rodriguez will hit 600 in one of the next three games at Yankee Stadium. While the original prediction was July 25 (which will still occur if he continues to hit one HR every third game), it’s looking like it may come sooner. There is a 22.3 percent chance career home run 600 is hit tonight (7/23), a 17.9 percent chance its hit tomorrow, and a 14.2 percent chance its hit on Sunday.

A-Rod will face starting pitchers Brian Bannister, Kyle Davies and Anthony Lerew, respectively. In Rodriguez’s career he has faced tonight’s starter Bannister ten times, and has three hits – all home runs! Also, A-Rod hit career home run 500 versus tomorrow night’s pitcher Kyle Davies. Both of these notions affect the percentage chance that A-Rod will hit 600 during one of the upcoming games.

In the event that he does not hit his 600th in NYC, the Yankees travel to Cleveland to play four games versus the Indians, and then Tampa Bay for three games against the Rays. SeatGeek and Hit Tracker have updated data which looks at the best sections to catch the 600th HR ball, as well as a new “Money Seat” for Progressive Field and Tropicana Field (let us know if you want a sneak peak at the charts).

Yankee fans should hope that A-Rod hits number 600 on this home stand, so that they can witness the historic event, and A-Rod can share the moment with the hometown crowd. If he goes homerless in the next three games, there is only a 7.6 percent chance he does not hit the home run while he is playing in Cleveland or Tampa Bay.

If you want a chance to catch the ball and witness history, but don’t have tickets, SeatGeek is the place to get them. Currently on SeatGeek, there are seats available for each of the next three games in both Sections 135 and 136, where you’ll have the highest percentage chance to catch A-Rod’s 600th. Click on one of the event page links below for ticket deals and also track how Yankees ticket prices are fluctuating on the secondary market:

7/23 Kansas City Royals @ New York Yankees

7/24 Kansas City Royals @ New York Yankees

7/25 Kansas City Royals @ New York Yankees

If you have any questions or data inquiries, don’t hesitate to email me at justin@seatgeek.com. Also, don’t forget to follow us on Twitter @SeatGeek, “Like” us on Facebook, and stop by SeatGeek for all of your ticket needs.

As you might have seen by now, we are extremely excited to announce that we have raised $1 MM in a Series A round (justifying the S to G smile on our logo). The Series A financing was led by Founder Collective, an early stage VC firm based in New York City that previously invested in Get Me In!, a European secondary ticket market acquired in 2008 by Ticketmaster. NYC Seed, another early stage VC firm based in New York City, also invested in the round. Founder Collective and NYC Seed will join SeatGeek’s current investors, which include Stage One Capital, Trisiras Group, PKS Capital; and angel investors Arie Abecassis, Sunil Hirani, Thomas Lehrman, Allen Levinson and Mark Wachen.

The funding brings SeatGeek’s total investment to over $1.5 MM, and we intend to use the financing to build out our engineering and business development teams. In particular, we will focus on making our unique data and analytics more accessible to strategic partners, consumers, and the media.

Thanks to everyone that has congratulated us on Twitter and to all of our users. If you want more info on the round, get in touch with us on Twitter (@SeatGeek) or email me at chad[at]seatgeek.com.

The SeatGeek Co-Founders, Jack and Russ, are available for phone or Skype interviews.

A-Rod’s 500th Home Run Sold for +$100K – His 600th is Approaching and We Calculated Where it is Most Likely to Land…

UPDATE: If you are looking for this report for Progressive Field, check out our latest blog post here ->600th HR Path for Progressive Field: A-Rod Takes His 600th HR Chase to Cleveland

Overview

Alex Rodriguez is currently three home runs from becoming the seventh member of the elite 600 Home Run Club. Given the magnitude of the home run and the value of the ball, we at SeatGeek became particularly interested in where A-Rod’s 600th ball will land.

As originally reported in the Wall Street Journal, we teamed up with Hit Tracker, a company that tracks the trajectory of every home run hit in the MLB, to determine not only which sections at Yankee Stadium have the highest probability of the ball landing there, but also the actual seat in the stadium that is the most likely spot for A-Rod to hit number 600 – “The Money Seat”.

SeatGeek also monitored ticket prices on the secondary market for sections that have the highest probability of being the landing zone for the 600th homer. We compared these prices with the average transaction prices of these seats throughout the season to determine a fan’s ROI of buying a ticket in these sections.

A-Rod’s 600th Home Run: The Prediction

Hit Tracker tracks the trajectory of every home run in the MLB to accurately project the ball’s distance and landing location. The founder, Greg Rybarczyk, looks at the angle the ball came off the bat, the angle of elevation, bat speed, wind, and other factors to trace each flight path.

Based on the aforementioned variables and A-Rod’s historical home run data across the last 4.5 seasons, Greg was able to create a probability density function to determine a section-by-section analysis for A-Rod’s 600th home run ball landing path. If you want the best chance to catch the ball, we suggest you grab a seat in one of the sections with the highest probability as outlined in the chart below.

The most likely sections at Yankee Stadium are: 1. Section 136 (9% chance) 2. Section 135 (7.8% chance) 3. Section 134 (6.9% chance) 4. Section 235 (4.7% chance) 5. Section 236 (3.9% chance)

A-Rod’s 600th Home Run: “The Money Seat”

With their database of Alex Rodriguez’s historical home runs, Hit Tracker was able to look at the average path of his home runs to determine where he will hit his 600th home run. Below is the most likely path for A-Rod’s 600th home run in Yankee Stadium, with the ball forecasted to land in Section 135, Row 18, Seat 6.  The fan in the “The Money Seat” has the highest probability of catching the ball! Please note that even though Section 136 has the highest probability by section, the single most likely seat is located in Section 135 – this is primarily due to the fact that Section 136 ranges 4-6 seats wider per row than Section 135.

Yankee Stadium: A-Rod 600th HR Most Likely Landing Spot and Trajectory

Historically, seats in the most likely sections for A-Rod’s 600th to land have transacted significantly above the season average ticket price at Yankee Stadium.  “The Money Seat” section has the highest average transaction ticket prices of the three at 65% over the season average (section 136 is 59% above the season average).  Note: as a % of face value, sections 134, 135, and 136 are 121%, 151%, and 134% on average.

As noted in the chart above, the average transaction ticket price for tickets in Section 136 at Yankee Stadium, the section which has the highest probability of A-Rod’s 600th HR ball landing there, is $120.92. While the price of these tickets is far greater than overall season average, the listing price for tickets in Section 136 during the Yankees’ upcoming home stand is actually less than the average in 2010. Fortunately for fans who want to not only catch the action, but maybe catch A-Rod’s 600th, tickets are listed at an average of $104.57, which is about a 13.5% decrease from the average.

Note: Section 136 Season Avg. represents data prior to the All-Star Game

A-Rod’s 600th Home Run: The Timing

After the All-Star break, the Yankees have a nine game home stand starting Friday, July 16 against the Tampa Bay Rays, Los Angeles Angels, and Kansas City Royals respectively. Then, they travel to Cleveland for four games versus the Indians, and Tampa Bay for three games.

Given A-Rod’s home run pace, there is a 40.8% chance he hits it on the next Yankees home stand, and the most likely game is on July 25th at Yankee Stadium versus the Kansas City Royals (7.3% chance). Certainly, both Rodriguez and Yankees fans hope that he will make history at Yankee Stadium. However, we have trajectories and seating maps for Progressive Field in Cleveland and Tropicana Field in Tampa Bay, and we will continue to monitor and report out on those moving forward.

Secondary Ticket Market Reacts to A-Rod’s Impending 600th Home Run

The average ticket prices for games during the Yankees’ upcoming home stand are transacting for higher than average, given increased demand to witness, and potentially catch, A-Rod’s 600th home run. Note that other factors are driving higher demand including the deaths of Yankees’ legends Bob Sheppard and George Steinbrenner, as well as Old Timer’s Day on Saturday, July 17.

The season average for Yankees ticket prices is $76. Yet, the average transaction price for the series versus the Tampa Bay Rays (from July 16 to July 18) is $94, which is a 24% increase compared to the season average. This average is also 84% higher than the other Rays’ series at Yankee Stadium in 2010. When the Rays came to New York in May, the average transaction price for that series was only $50, and for their series in September, the average is $52.

Ticket prices to see the upcoming Los Angeles Angels series are currently transacting at $71.  The prior series was $84 due to an artificial lift from the Yankees’ home opener (excluding the home opener, this series’ prices are up over 100%). The Yankees have only one home series against the Royals in 2010 so we cannot measure how A-Rod’s race to 600 home runs affected ticket prices.

Expected Return on Investment (ROI)

Given the increase in prices on the secondary market to see A-Rod’s 600th, we took this implied incremental spend and calculated ROIs at various resale prices. Note that this analysis is independent of game timing as actual game likelihoods will be in constant flux.

Sample listing in the most likely section for the upcoming home stand on SeatGeek.

Assuming you purchase tickets for the 600th HR game, the charts below outline your expected ROI. As a reference point, there were several listings in Section 136 for between $80 and $160 for the upcoming Yankees home stand (as of 7/19/2010).

Expected ROI explained: seats in the most likely section (136) have averaged $121 this season, though average prices will be higher as A-Rod approaches 600. Accordingly, we have presented a data table with ROI calculations starting at $135 (just over a 10% premium to the season average) through $175 (just under a 50% premium). This ticket price range is then measured against projected resale prices for the ball based on a likely range estimated by SCP Auctions and A-Rod’s 500th HR ball, which sold for $103,000. Incremental spend (i.e. amount over the season average spent for that game) is then measured against expected value (i.e. resale price multiplied by the % probability per seat) to determine expected ROI. So this means that if you purchased a ticket in section 136 for $155 and the ball sells for $125,000, expected ROI is 79%.

Sample calculation: 9% chance for section 136 / 184 seats in section 136 x $125,000 resale price of the ball = $61.14 expected gain. $155 ticket price – $120.92 section average prior to break = $34.08 incremental spend. $61.14 expected gain – $34.08 cost = $27.06. $27.06/$34.08 = Expected Value ROI of 79%. Realized ROI = ($125,000 – $155) / $155 = 80,545%.

Summary

• Maximize your odds of cashing in on A-Rod’s 600th home run by purchasing tickets in left field, specifically sections 134-136 and 235-236
• A-Rod is most likely to hit his 600th home run into section 135, row 18, seat 6 – “The Money Seat”
• Sections 134-136 historically transact at over 40% above the overall season average ticket price – current listings for the upcoming home stand are between $66-$193
• Due to section size differences, section 136 is the most likely section even though “The Money Seat” is in section 135
• If the ball does not land in a seat, the most likely locations in order are: visitors’ bullpen (LF), Monument Park, yankees’ bullpen (RF), and the ambulance tunnel
• A-Rods home run ball is expected to sell for between $100,000 and $150,000 at auction based on discussions with SCP Auctions
• There is a 40.8% chance A-Rod hits his 600th on the upcoming Yankees home stand, making this the most likely stretch for the milestone to occur
• The Yankees upcoming home stand is transacting at a premium to prior and future series’ averages at Yankee Stadium – implying an incremental spend for witnessing A-Rod’s 600th HR game
• Assuming a resale price of $100,000, if you purchased “The Money Seat” for $145, your expected ROI based on incremental spend is 227%
• Tickets for the July 25th Royals versus Yankees game in section 136 have a positive expected ROI if purchased for less than $125 – even when factoring in the likelihood that he does not hit the home run that game
• The person that catches the ball will likely turn a profit of over $100,000 dollars if they decide to sell it at auction

If you are attending a Yankees game this July, best of luck catching the ball. Hopefully we were able to make your ticket buying experience a little bit more interesting and potentially profitable!

Green Day vs. American Idiot

There’s something magical about a rock concert. As an audience member you never know what’s going to happen. Heck, even the band probably doesn’t know what’s going to happen half the time. From the time that band steps onto the stage, until the moment they take their final bows, anything is possible. This limitless potential is part of what makes rock concerts so enthralling. At any given concert the crowd’s excitement is almost palpable as it anxiously waits to see what remarkable performance is in store for them on that particular night. The anticipation of the unknown is what whips crowds into a frenzy, and for good reason. Most of the greatest moments in live music history have been spontaneous explosions of musical tenacity, like Jimi Hendrix lighting his guitar on fire at the Montery Pop Festival, or Bob Dylan “going electric” at the Newport Folk Festival in 1965. Similar to sports tickets, whenever someone purchases a ticket to a live concert, he or she is purchasing a chance to witness history.

Broadway musicals on the other hand, offer a different type of experience. They can be equally, if not more entertaining than a concert, depending on the tastes of the ticket buyer. Involving a plot, and actors, rather than just a band, musicals are usually more intricate productions than straight up concerts. Traditionally, musicals have utilized show-tunes, melody and harmony driven musical numbers that are known more for memorable melodies than energizing instrumentation. However, in recent years more and more musicals have transitioned into using rock music, with electric guitars and pounding drums, rather than orchestras with piccolos and trombones. Beginning with Hair, and continuing with shows such as Rent, these rock musicals have promoted their high-octane shows, attempting to cater to a younger audience. However, having actors headbanging and playing guitar on stage does not necessarily make these musicals a more electrifying experience than a real rock-n’-roll concert. In order to shed a little more light on the concert vs. musical debate, we here at SeatGeek decided to focus in on Green Day’s new Broadway Musical American Idiot, and compare ticket prices for the show, to prices of Green Day concerts over the past 2 years.

*Green Day concert ticket data is blue, American Idiot Ticket data is gray.

The data paints an interesting picture for us. One thing that is evident from these statistics is that American Idiot is not a flop. In fact tickets to the Tony-nominated musical are transacting at a higher average price ($140) than tickets to a live Green Day concert in 2010, ($127.31) and the show has already grossed over $11.5 million since its debut on April 20th. American Idiot is also outselling other top shows such as The Lion King and Billy Elliot on the secondary market.

Before we anoint American Idiot, “bigger than the band” however, we must first take a look at any other variables that could contribute to these results. The comparative ticket data may be slightly misleading due to the discrepancy in ticket supply. The St. James Theatre, in which American Idiot plays, has a capacity of only 1623 patrons, whereas Green Day’s tours have taken them through arenas with capacities over ten times the St. James’. As tickets for American Idiot are more scarce, the prices are correspondingly higher.

Changes in Green Day Tickets

While analyzing the data, we were also struck by interesting trends in Green Day concert tickets themselves. When looking at ticket purchases year over year, we noticed a significant increase in transacted ticket prices; prices jumped from an average of $62.41 in 2009 to over $127 in 2010, an increase of almost 104%! This increase is even more remarkable considering that Green Day’s 2009 summer tour was in support of a brand new album, 21st Century Breakdown, released on May 15th 2009, the long-awaited follow up to 2004’s Grammy winning American Idiot. Nevertheless, prices for concerts over a year later are more than twice what they were for the 21st Century Breakdown tour.

Green Day tickets have also increased relative to other high grossing tours of the past two years. As seen in the graph below, in 2009 tickets for Green Day were significantly cheaper than other big name acts, despite their new album.

Conversely in 2010, although still not comparable to the absolute highest grossing concerts of the year, Green Day concerts are clearly in the upper echelon of secondary market ticket prices.

We then decided to compare Green Day’s year by year prices to other bands. Out of five bands that toured in both 2009 and 2010, surprisingly all five of their average transacted ticket prices increased from 2009 to 2010. However, Green Day’s ticket prices increased year over year far more than any of the other artists.

Conclusion: It’s Good For the Show & Good for the Band

While it is unwise to assume causation from correlation, it appears that the successful production of American Idiot on the stage, has reinvigorated Green Day fans, and driven up demand for their concerts. There are very few alternate variables that could have affected ticket prices this dramatically. During the time between their 2009 and 2010 tours, they have released no new albums, won no new musical awards, and have been generally un-newsworthy in every way, except for the press surrounding American Idiot the musical. It appears that far from hurting Green Day’s punk image, or drawing fans away from the band’s performances themselves, the theatrical appearance of American Idiot has thrived, and helped Green Day enter the new decade as popular as ever.

For a comparison of the two experiences, here are three videos of American Idiot (the song): an excerpt from the Broadway presentation, the original music video, and a video of Green Day performing the song live in concert. Enjoy.

As always, if you have any questions or comments please feel free to email me at jonathan@seatgeek.com, like us on facebook at facebook.com/seatgeek and follow us on twitter @SeatGeek & @SeatGeekMusic

New York, NY – July 13, 2010 – SeatGeek (http://seatgeek.com), the only site that forecasts how sports and concert ticket prices move on the secondary market, announced the launch of a new localized ticketing widget to surface local events and unique forecasting content to sports fans, while offering bloggers and partners sites additional revenue opportunities.

What is the Widget

When SeatGeek’s Partnership with FanFeedr was first announced, we briefly discussed the widget which displays locally relevant ticketing data to users based on their location, with content that site owners can set up to fit the topic of their site.  Below we go into more detail:

SeatGeek aggregates and forecasts the price of sports and concert tickets on the secondary ticket market and was created to solve the following problem:

The Problem:

Will sports and concert tickets prices rise or fall?

The Solution:

We forecast ticket prices with a high degree of accuracy (>80%) allowing sports and music fan to use SeatGeek to buy tickets when they are least expensive.

The SeatGeek widget combines this solution into a robust and relevant tool for website owners and bloggers who can in turn offer additional value to their users by surfacing upcoming events in their area, as well as unique forecasting content. Website owners can customize the widget for a specific team, artist, or league and the widget will geo-locate to offer tickets only for the user’s location.

The widget displays upcoming events, event date/time, and a forecast of whether prices are forecasted to rise, fall, or hold. If fans are interested in attending the game, and prices are forecasted to rise or hold, they can select ‘Find Tickets’ to get started by browsing SeatGeek’s aggregated ticket listings.

Widget Benefits for Fans

• Stay on top of upcoming events in your area
• Know when prices for upcoming events are forecasted to rise so you can buy and save
• Know when prices are going to fall so you can sign up for an email alert and purchase later when prices are at their lowest
• Keep track of events for your favorite artists and teams while browsing the blogs and websites that are already in your browsing schedule

Widget Benefits for Bloggers

• The content matches the interests of the blog readers – whether sports, music, a specific team, a specific city, or a specific league
• The SeatGeek widget allows bloggers to display SeatGeek’s proprietary ticket forecasts
• Bloggers are able to add an additional revenue stream in a way that is not disruptive like many forms of display advertising

Widget Benefits for Partner Sites

• SeatGeek developers can customize widgets to fit the specific needs of partner sites
• In addition to widgets, SeatGeek’s development team can build out full team and league schedule pages with the ability to view upcoming games and buy tickets

For partnership inquiries, please contact Nihar Singhal at nihar[at]seatgeek.com. If you would like to setup a widget yourself, it is available on the SeatGeek Partner Program page. As you may have already noticed, you can see a live sample of our widgets on all of our blogs, including the SeatGeek Sports Blog and the SeatGeek Music Blog.

Over the past week, we at SeatGeek have analyzed the secondary markets of teams in the American League East, the American League Central, the American League West, the National League East, and the National League Central. Today, we will conclude the series by analyzing the National League West. We will be using three metrics; 1) Average transaction price per team versus average percent of face value per team 2) the top ten games in the NL West, as determined by average transaction price on the secondary market 3) the top three games for each team in the NL West.

• The division-leading Padres have the second lowest average ticket price and lowest percent of face value in the division.
• The last place Diamondbacks have the highest percent of face value from the teams we were able to get that data for. Their tickets are selling for on average 19% more than the Rockies, who are in second place.

• 7 of the top 10 games include either the Yankees or the Red Sox.
• The Dodgers and Giants make up 9 of the top 10 games, including one game between the two.

• The average price for the Yankees-Dodgers series was $99.
• Only 1 of the 15 games are between teams in the NL West.

This concludes our Midseason Ticket Report Series. Be sure to follow us on Twitter @SeatGeekMLB and email max@seatgeek.com with any questions or comments.

Enter Now–> Redirect to Twitter to Tweet this and enter! or Redirect to Facebook to ‘Like’ and enter!

A-Rod Contest Background

With Alex Rodriguez only three home runs away from the milestone home run number 600, we at SeatGeek have taken a particular interest in predicting where the ball may land. The home run ball may be worth upwards of $100,000, but also makes an invaluable souvenir for any Yankees fan that catches it.

Given the desire for the ball, we have reached out to our friends at Hit Tracker to get a specific prediction, down to the very seat, of where the most likely spot for Alex Rodriguez to hit home run number 600 in Yankee Stadium is. (For more in depth coverage of the prediction, check back on the SeatGeek Blog soon).

We have coined the aforementioned seat “The Money Seat”. If you want the best chance to catch A-Rod’s 600th HR ball, you need to be sitting in this seat.

What seat is it, you ask? Well, that’s up to you guys to guess, at first…

Contest/Rules

Here is the contest: follow us on Twitter @SeatGeek and in a mention to us, give us your predictions, OR Like us on facebook and post your prediction on our wall. We are operating under the assumption that A-Rod hits number 600 in this upcoming nine game home stand, so we want to hear your predictions for which section in Yankee Stadium ‘The Money Seat” is in. In other words, which section has the highest probability of the ball landing there.

This is what you must tweet (fill in the blank with your actual guess): Entered @SeatGeek A-Rod 600th HR contest for a free tee / tickets*. My “Money Seat” prediction is in Section [ ] http://ow.ly/2bnFu

Enter Now–> Redirect to Twitter to Tweet this and enter! or Redirect to Facebook to ‘Like’ and enter!

Here are the sections you can choose from (in number order):

Section 103          Section 132          Section 201          Section 206          Section 235

Section 104          Section 133          Section 202          Section 207          Section 236

Section 105          Section 134          Section 203          Section 233A        Section 237

Section 106          Section 135          Section 204          Section 233B        Section 238

Section 107          Section 136          Section 205          Section 234          Section 239

The winner will be randomly selected amongst the correct section guesses, and will win an Alex Rodriguez player tee (or MLB player tee of their choice, if they don’t want an A-Rod one)! Note, if we reach 100 participants, we will give away $100 worth of tickets to a MLB game or concert of your choosing.

You must Like us on Facebook or follow us on Twitter in order to win. No duplicate entries. The contest will run from now until Thursday at midnight, PT.

Depending on the popularity of this contest, we may then hold another contest asking for your predictions for which section the ball actually lands in (as opposed to which section has the highest probability of the ball landing there). That contest will take place from time TBD until A-Rod hits his 600th home run.

In the case that Alex Rodriguez doesn’t hit number 600 during the Yankees home stand, the contest will be altered for participants to guess the section, row and seat in the away parks. The Yankees play at Progressive Field in Cleveland and Tropicana Field in Tampa Bay before returning back to New York.

Good luck, spread the word, and don’t forget to visit SeatGeek for all of your concert and sporting event needs!

* We must have 100 entries for tickets to come into play

One entry each – No duplicates

Last week, we at SeatGeek begin our Midseason Ticket Report series by looking at the American League East, the American League Central, the American League West, and the National League East. Today, we will be analyzing the National League Central. We will be using three metrics; 1) Average transaction price per team versus average percent of face value per team 2) the top ten games in the NL Central, as determined by average transaction price on the secondary market 3) the top three games for each team in the NL Central.

• The Cubs, who are 9.5 games out of first place and 11 games under .500, lead the division in both average ticket price and percent of face value. This could possibly be attributed to the fact that the Cubs are a popular team and they play in Chicago, the 3rd largest city in the United States.
• The Reds are leading the division. Yet their average ticket price is $37 compared to the 4th place Cubs whose average ticket price is $70. That means the average ticket price for the Reds is 47% less than it is for the Cubs.
• The Brewers are in 3rd place in the division while the Pirates are in last place. Yet the Pirates tickets resell for an average of 116% of face value while the Brewers only resell for 85% of face value. That’s a 31% difference. 
• 8 of the 10 most expensive games are between the Cubs and the Cardinals.
• The other two most expensive games are the Cubs against their crosstown rivals, the White Sox.

• 11 of the 18 games are between teams in the NL Central.

Be sure to check back with SeatGeek for the final report of our MLB midseason series on the National League West.

Also be sure to follow us on Twitter @SeatGeekMLB and email max@seatgeek.com with any questions or comments.