What went wrong for five MLB playoff contenders that fell short in 2026

We’re entering the second-to-last week of the 2026 MLB regular season, and things are clearer than ever when it comes to the playoff picture. The best teams have risen, the worst teams have sunk, and those in the middle of the pack have largely stayed there. 

With SeatGeek serving as the Official Ticket Marketplace of MLB, we’ve been following every team this season with a watchful eye. There’s not much time left, and five expected playoff – and even World Series – contenders are seemingly out of the race. Here’s what went wrong for each of those squads this season. 

Why these five MLB playoff contenders fell short in 2026

From injuries to underperforming stars, these five teams all had different reasons for falling out of the 2026 playoff race.

Seattle Mariners: 70-80 (5 GB AL West, 6 GB AL Wild Card)

There may not be a more disappointing team in all of baseball this year than the Mariners. They were a few outs from reaching their first World Series last October, but even in dreadfully weak AL West and AL Wild Card races, Seattle is not even sniffing a playoff spot right now. 

There are quite a few things to look at here. First, Cal Raleigh, last year’s AL MVP runner-up, got off to an awful start, got hurt, then returned and struggled. He’s gotten hot of late, but it’s been too little too late. Other big names like Julio Rodriguez and Josh Naylor are having arguably the worst years of their respective careers, and the team ranks in the bottom three in runs scored. 

On the mound, the Mariners appear to have run out of gas. They’re 20th in team ERA this year and gave up the second-most runs in baseball last month. The team operated with a six-man rotation for much of the year, limiting their bullpen depth, and that’s really shown up.

Moving forward, it’s easy to think the Mariners will be fine given how weak the AL West and AL as a whole have been, as well as the number of big names set to return to the team in 2027. But the Mariners are expected to lose All-Star outfielder Randy Arozarena, who really has been the best and only real consistent hitter in this lineup this season. Whether the M’s can replace his production is a major question mark. 

New York Mets: 69-80 (18.5 GB NL East, 12 GB NL Wild Card)

The Mariners are the biggest disappointment in the American League. Their NL counterparts are the Mets, and it’s not particularly close. 

New York made waves this offseason by both allowing Pete Alonso to leave for Baltimore before undergoing a major roster reshuffle that included Bo Bichette, Freddy Peralta, Jorge Polanco, Marcus Semien, Luke Weaver and Devin Williams. Well, little has gone right for that group, and Peralta is now in Tampa Bay while Weaver is a Pirate after the Mets’ start to the year went so bad so fast that they sold at the deadline and fired manager Carlos Mendoza at the end of June. Bichette is locked in for quite a while, and thankfully he’s been a lot better after a disastrous start to his first year in Queens. 

The Mets are in the bottom 10 in runs scored and are 16th in team ERA. They’re an interesting team moving forward as the building blocks – Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, Nolan McLean, Carson Benge and Bichette – are all rock solid, and despite losing Alonso, the Mets are still in the top 10 in MLB in home runs. But after last offseason’s flurry of moves largely flopped, how aggressive will team ownership be to get things right for 2027 and the near future?

Detroit Tigers: 70-79 (6 GB AL Central, 5.5 GB AL Wild Card)

The Tigers were this close to making the ALCS last year, but all eyes were on them both as AL Central favorites and to see what they would do with prized ace Tarik Skubal at the deadline. But that latter thought would only matter if they fell out of contention. 

Thanks to a 6-22 month of May, which coincided with Skubal’s IL stint, the Tigers slid down the standings. They were firmly in the Wild Card race thanks largely to the struggles of the entire American League this year, but they still opted to sell Skubal and Casey Mize at the deadline. Shortly after, things started to fall apart, with an 11-16 month of August cementing that Detroit will be watching this postseason from home. 

Even with Skubal missing a month and now in Los Angeles, Detroit’s pitching has been very good, ranking fifth in MLB in team ERA. The Tigers have been worse off at the plate, ranking 16th in runs scored this year. Rookie Kevin McGonigle’s stellar season should net him unanimous Rookie of the Year honors. 

But the Tigers have been dreadful in one-score games. They’re 14-27 in such games and have blown a whopping 28 saves this year, so the bullpen has not been good enough when things have mattered the most. 

The Tigers will be fine moving forward. They have a lot of awesome young pieces in the lineup and a proven winner leading the charge in manager AJ Hinch. The biggest question moving forward is how the rotation looks with Framber Valdez serving as the clear No. 1 guy with Skubal and Mize gone. 

Cincinnati Reds: 70-79 (22.5 GB NL Central, 11 GB NL Wild Card)

The Reds took advantage of a really weak NL Wild Card race a year ago, making the postseason with just 83 wins before being swept by the Dodgers in the first round. With so many important pieces coming back and some notable offseason additions, including the return of Eugenio Suarez, Cincinnati seemed like a team that should be in the playoff picture at this stage of the season. 

So what went wrong? Well, pretty much everything. The Reds are 25th in runs scored and 28th in team ERA. Ouch. 

Ace Hunter Greene has missed nearly the entire year due to injury, and outside of youngster Chase Burns, the pitching staff as a whole has been pretty much awful. As for at the plate, rookie Sal Stewart is the frontrunner for NL Rookie of the Year and has been incredible, and Elly De La Cruz has also shined. But the rest of the bunch has been very streaky and average at best. The Reds also lead MLB in strikeouts at the plate and have been too easy to pitch to for too often in 2026. 

There are enough young pieces to be excited about moving forward, but the National League is deep, especially in the Central. Cincinnati has a lot of work to do overall to be more competitive starting in 2027. 

Pittsburgh Pirates: 75-75 (18 GB NL Central, 6.5 GB NL Wild Card)

I’m not sure if it’s necessarily fair to lump the Pirates in with the above four teams considering they haven’t made the playoffs since 2015 and have the best record of the bunch, but they’ve had a pretty frustrating season, to be quite honest.

Given the presence of Paul Skenes, the reigning NL Cy Young winner, and that the team ranked seventh in team ERA in 2025, the goal was simple: Fix the lineup. The thought was if the offense was average and the pitching was as good as last year, this team should fight for a playoff spot. 

Well, the team did improve the lineup, and after this weekend, they rank fifth in runs scored after finishing 2025 dead last at 30th. 

So what went wrong? Well, that great pitching? That didn’t carry over to 2026. Pittsburgh is 15th in team ERA at 4.18. A big reason for that has been the regression of Skenes. He hasn’t worked particularly deep in games this season, his velocity is down and his ERA nearly doubled from 1.97 last year to 3.78 this year. That’s still a solid number, but given how incredible Skenes was to start his career, seeing his ERA be closer to 4 than 3 is a bit startling. 

The Pirates have a plus-26 run differential, and per MLB.com, their expected record at this stage of the year is 78-72, which would have them firmly in the thick of the NL Wild Card race. That the offense, led by offseason addition Brandon Lowe, improved is a good sign, but Lowe is a pending free agent, and the Pirates haven’t exactly been the most aggressive team in terms of adding in the offseason. Regardless of whether Lowe returns or not, the Pirates will need Skenes and Co. to improve on the mound.