2026-27 College Football Playoff rankings: National championship contenders ranked by tiers

We’ve had two very wild weekends of college football back to back. Week 7 saw five top-seven teams fall, and Week 8 saw more chaos with three top-eight teams losing, including the No. 2 team in the nation. We entered Week 8 with six unbeaten teams, and we left with just three. 

But chaos is what makes college football so great. Upsets are aplenty, polls and rankings get shaken up and all the while we’re trying to sort out which teams are actual national championship contenders. 

That’s what I’ve been doing all season long, and that question seems especially prevalent given all the chaos we’ve seen the last two weeks. 

Ranking 2026-27 College Football Playoff contenders by their chances to win the national championship

So this week, I’m splitting teams into tiers as it pertains to their ability to win the College Football Playoff – not just make the 12-team field. Let’s start with the three teams that look like they’re at the top of the pack … for now, that is. 

True contenders

• No. 1 Miami (7-0)

• No. 3 Georgia (6-1)

• No. 5 Notre Dame (6-1)

There are pros and cons for each of these teams right now, but to me, they’re the three best teams in the land with the fewest question marks to answer. 

Miami is fresh off another blowout win, this time over Pittsburgh. The Hurricanes have only really been tested once, which was against rival Florida State, but they’ve plowed through everyone else as they aim to return to the CFP National Championship Game. The schedule has been weak, but that road win over Wake Forest (more on the Demon Deacons later) looks better and better by the week. Quarterback Darian Mensah is playing as good as anyone in the nation at any position. The Canes have one of the clearest paths to the CFP, and we’re all waiting for that Nov. 7 matchup with Notre Dame. 

Speaking of the Fighting Irish, they got a bye week after a close loss at BYU that, like too many games this year, had controversy around the final second of the game clock – this time, there should have been a second added. Oh well. Notre Dame really has cruised this year outside of a loss in Provo, which is a tough place to play. CJ Carr is a consistently great quarterback, and the Notre Dame defense remains elite. The Irish have two tough games left against Miami (Nov. 7) and SMU (Nov. 21), but as long as they don’t go 0-2 there, they will almost certainly make the 12-team field. Assuming they do, the Irish are a deep and hungry team that no one will want to play after last year’s CFP snub. 

And then there’s Georgia. I, like many around the nation, was stunned at last week’s loss to Auburn. I didn’t think much of the matchup ahead of time, so when I heard the Bulldogs lost, I assumed they were at Auburn. That the Tigers pulled off the upset in Athens was maybe the most surprising part of that game. Even after a two-pick game, I have a lot of faith in quarterback Gunner Stockton. He’s a rock-solid quarterback of a high-level offense, and he has a typically great defense on the other side. The Bulldogs were also fresh off knocking off Alabama in Tuscaloosa, so perhaps that loss to Auburn can be attributed to a letdown spot. Either way, I know better than to bet against Kirby Smart, who is arguably the best in the business.  

The biggest wild card

• No. 2 Ohio State (6-1)

The Buckeyes are the biggest wild card in college football, and it’s not close. Ohio State is 6-1 with its lone loss being at Texas in Week 2. The Buckeyes have the nation’s best player in Jeremiah Smith and NFL-level talent across the board on both sides of the ball. But they also have a lot of questions at the sport’s most important position – quarterback. 

Starter Julian Sayin got hurt late last week in a tight win at Indiana, leaving the game in a sling. Head coach Ryan Day said his starter will be out “indefinitely.” Sayin finished fourth in Heisman voting in 2025. 

The Buckeyes have a pair of freshmen in Luke Fahey and Tavien St. Clair who are on deck to replace Sayin, and it looks like Fahey will get first crack when Ohio State plays USC next week. After that are matchups with Oregon, Northwestern and Nebraska before The Game at home against Michigan. Perhaps Sayin returns sooner than anticipated, but since we can’t assume that, the Buckeyes’ CFP hopes rest in a young quarterback room. Whether one of Fahey and St. Clair is up to the task will determine whether or not the Buckeyes truly are a title-caliber squad. 

Fringe contenders

• No. 4 Indiana (7-1)

• No. 7 UCLA (7-0)

• No. 10 Alabama (6-2)

• No. 11 Texas (5-2)

Of these four, I have the most faith in the Hoosiers. But even then, I have my concerns. Indiana has scored 28 points over its last two games and needed overtime to beat a lackluster Michigan squad last weekend. Josh Hoover is banged up and has not played very good football for a while now, and the Hoosiers’ offense has not been able to run the football as well in recent weeks. The defense is arguably the nation’s best, though, and if Hoover finds a groove, the Hoosiers will jump into the top of these tiers. 

UCLA is a strange one. Bob Chesney has done an unreal job in Year 1 in Los Angeles. The Bruins are one of three unbeaten teams left, and they do it with a great defense and run game. The concern is at quarterback as starter Nico Iamaleava tore his ACL a few weeks ago. UCLA has been able to overcome his absence in recent weeks, but wins of 17-15 (Oregon), 17-7 (Wisconsin) and 28-10 (Michigan State) aren’t the most convincing. Basically every other aspect of UCLA’s roster screams title contender, but with uncertainty under center, I’ll be a bit bearish on the Bruins, even with the wins continuing to stack up. 

Alabama and Texas are very similar teams, in my opinion. Each squad has two losses, so there’s little to no room for error. But the rosters are loaded with NFL talent, and the head coaches are among the best in the game. 

The issues for the Crimson Tide are defensively, as Alabama has allowed a lot more points than you’d expect this year. Quarterback Keelon Russell is as elite of a talent as you’ll find, but there have been some recent growing pains, and the team can’t really afford any more over its final four games, though it’s a very winnable stretch. 

As for Texas, all eyes – and pressure – are on Arch Manning. The nephew of Peyton and Eli has always been a target for criticism given his lineage, and while there’s no denying the talent, you also can’t deny that he was a huge problem in Texas’ losses to Oklahoma and Florida. Even in a recent win over Ole Miss he tossed two picks and lost a fumble that was returned for a touchdown. The Longhorns have Mississippi State, Missouri, LSU, Arkansas and Texas A&M left, and with Steve Sarkisian clearly invested in Manning as his starter, there’s simply no room for error. The good news is Texas is loaded with talent on both sides, so if Manning gets hot, this is as dangerous of a team as you’ll find. But one more loss likely sinks the Longhorns. 

Fun stories but I need to see more

• No. 6 Utah (7-0)

• No. 8 BYU (6-1)

• No. 9 Kentucky (7-1)

• No. 14 Wake Forest (6-1)

• No. 20 Northwestern (6-1)

Utah just knocked off a very good Houston squad at home after a dreadful offensive showing in the first half, and the Utes are one of three unbeaten teams left. They just keep winning! But that Houston game was the Utes’ first real challenge, and they’ve struggled at times against far lesser competition, namely a three-point win over Colorado. Utah will have a tough two-week stretch with a matchup against a plucky Cincinnati squad set for this weekend before a matchup at home against archrival BYU on Nov. 7.

As for those Cougars, talk about a letdown. They were flying high after a massive home upset over then-unbeaten Notre Dame, launching BYU to a No. 2 ranking – its highest since winning the national championship in 1984. But the Cougars got outgunned in a wild game at UCF, ending their unbeaten start. This is still a very good BYU team, but the Cougars have had a few close calls this year. They’ll have a good litmus test at Utah on Nov. 7, and the winner there will be in a great spot for the Big 12 title and CFP races. 

Kentucky is a football school? New head coach Will Stein has the Wildcats cooking so far at 7-1 as their lone loss was to Alabama. Kentucky has a slightly above-average offense and the 75th-ranked defense, which both give me pause. The Wildcats have a really tough stretch to end the year with matchups against Tennessee, Florida, Missouri and Louisville upcoming. I think we’re probably a year away from the Wildcats being a legit title contender, but that they’re 7-1 and firmly in the CFP conversation is a great achievement on its own. If they go 3-1 to end the year, Kentucky could be a very tough out in the CFP. 

It doesn’t feel like people are talking enough about Wake Forest. Jake Dickert has done a great job with the Demon Deacons as he’s 15-5 overall and 6-1 this year. That lone loss? A 13-point defeat to No. 1 Miami. Since then? Wake Forest has won by three, 54, 24 and 34. This team is in a great spot right now. Both sides of the ball are very good as Wake ranks 15th in scoring and 30th in scoring defense. The Demon Deacons are well balanced and really just have one tough foe remaining in SMU. This team has the makings of a Cinderella squad should they make the playoff field. 

And then there’s Northwestern. The mighty Wildcats are suddenly a Big Ten force to take note of as they’re averaging better than 200 rushing yards per game with 34.7 points per game. Northwestern has the No. 35 scoring offense in America and the No. 22 scoring defense. The Wildcats’ lone loss was a one-score effort at Indiana. They have Oregon, Iowa and Ohio State as their next three games, and depending how that stretch goes, this may be the Big Ten team we’re all talking about. 

I’m not buying it

• No. 12 Ole Miss (5-2)

• No. 13 Texas Tech (6-1)

• No. 15 LSU (6-2)

I won’t dive too deep into these three, but yeah, I simply cannot see any of them being the last team standing this year. 

Ole Miss’ defense has been a bit of a mess this year, and for all of Trinidad Chambliss’ greatness, it just feels like there’s too much he’d need to singlehandedly overcome. 

Texas Tech’s defense is not nearly the same caliber as last year’s team. Add in that the offense is worse and there’s little reason to take the Red Raiders seriously as a CFP title contender. 

As for LSU, this is a step in the right direction after years of struggles under Brian Kelly, but Year 1 of the Lane Kiffin era is not going to have a storybook ending. Sam Leavitt has a turnover problem at quarterback, and with two losses already and matchups with Alabama, Texas and Tennessee on tap, it feels unlikely the Tigers will even reach the CFP.