MLB panic meter: How worried should Phillies, Mets and other slow starters be?

April is winding down, and we now have a meaningful first look into how all 30 MLB teams are performing. Not all slow starts are created equal, though.

While preseason contenders like the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees have opened the 2026 MLB season strong, several teams that entered the year with playoff expectations are already facing uncomfortable uncertainty about the future of the season.

With SeatGeek serving as the Official Ticket Marketplace of MLB, we’re keeping a close eye on every team, and we've determined which slow starters we're not worried about and which ones have us concerned.

MLB panic meter for slow-starting playoff hopefuls

We’ve identified seven teams we viewed as prime playoff contenders before the season began who have stumbled out of the gate, and we break down whether it’s time to hit the panic button just yet.

Using our MLB Panic Meter on a scale of 1-5, with 1 meaning "no need to worry" and 5 meaning "five-alarm fire."

Seattle Mariners (14-16): 1 out of 5

The Mariners need to be more consistent, particularly at the plate, to meet the expectations many — myself included — set for them prior to the season, but it’s too early to really worry about a lackluster start. The M’s have played better of late, winning two of their last three series, and the lineup has had more big days over the last week-plus. The rotation and bullpen remain very good, too. The biggest reason I think it’s a 1 out of 5 for Seattle is that the AL West has been baseball’s weakest division to date.

Even while sitting two games under .500 right now, Seattle could very well be in first place within a week, as the team is just two games out. It hasn’t been ideal, but things should be fine for the Mariners.

Toronto Blue Jays (12-16): 2 out of 5

There’s no denying that the Blue Jays are looking a bit rough after reaching the World Series last year, but there are at least some easy answers as to why that’s the case and why things can get better. Toronto has been hit hard by the injury bug, with big names like George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, José Berríos, Shane Bieber and Trey Yesavage all dealing with injuries or recent IL stints. That’d be a tough blow for any team.

If — and yes, it’s a big if — they get healthy, the Blue Jays can contend. They have more than enough time to make up ground in both the AL East and Wild Card races, especially given that the AL West and AL Central have been two of the weakest divisions in baseball so far.

Philadelphia Phillies (9-19): 3 out of 5

This may still be a hair too optimistic, especially considering their recent losing streak, but I have a hard time believing the Phillies are a non-contender, let alone a last-place club. Still, after losing 11 of 12 and firing manager Rob Thomson before the end of April, it’s impossible to pretend this is anything other than a serious concern. It’s been tough of late, to be sure, but this is a talented squad. Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper are putting up their usual numbers, but the rest of the lineup needs to step up, namely guys like Trea Turner and Alec Bohm.

The bigger issue has been on the mound, where Philly has been among the worst teams in baseball. There are a few pieces of good news, though. Cristopher Sánchez looks like a Cy Young contender once again, and staff ace Zack Wheeler returned on Saturday and gave up just two runs over five innings against a tough Atlanta lineup.

I get that they’re in a bad way, but this is a Phillies team that has won the NL East two years in a row. Maybe in a month I’ll be more pessimistic, but I still think it’s too early to count them out completely. The numbers are rough, though.

New York Mets (9-19): 4 out of 5

What’s with perceived NL East contenders and long losing streaks? The Mets started 7-4 and proceeded to lose 12 in a row. They won two straight after snapping that skid, but then followed that up by getting swept by the Rockies of all teams. New York has now been swept in four of its last five series.

The lineup has been a disaster, as there’s no pop, and big offseason additions like Bo Bichette and Jorge Polanco are off to horrific starts. Juan Soto recently returned from the injured list, while Francisco Lindor is now sidelined, and that certainly hasn’t helped matters. The Mets have scored one or zero runs in 10 of their 28 games this year — the most in MLB.

The new-look bullpen has also been rough, with Luke Weaver and Devin Williams struggling with their new team. The saving grace is the top of the rotation with Nolan McLean, Freddy Peralta and Clay Holmes, all of whom have been great in the early stages. The bottom of the rotation has struggled, though. There’s a lot of talent here, but I’m really concerned about the lineup. You don’t need to swat a ton of homers to win — just ask the Brewers — but you have to have at least some slug. Lindor getting healthy and Soto settling back in will help, but things are looking rough right now. The overall talent level is why I’m not quite at 5 out of 5, but boy am I close.

Houston Astros (11-18): 4 out of 5

I initially had the Astros as a 5 out of 5, but the lineup is really, really good. Houston, thanks in large part to a healthy Yordan Alvarez, is top five in runs scored and is making life hard for opposing pitchers. The Astros’ pitching, however, has been a disaster.

After letting Framber Valdez leave for Detroit, Houston leaned heavily on Hunter Brown as the team’s new ace. Brown is a stud, but he’s one of many Astros pitchers on the injured list. Basically everyone but Brown who has toed the rubber is struggling, even the once rock-steady Bryan Abreu in the back of the bullpen.

The Astros used to be a pitching factory, with unheralded arms emerging as reliable starters and relievers, but that’s hardly been the case this year. Even if Brown returns quickly and dominates like he did early in the year, there’s just not enough depth or talent on the pitching side of things. That’s too bad for Houston, given how good the lineup looks. If any team is primed to make a surprise trade well before the deadline, Houston, trying its best to add an impact arm or two, would certainly make a lot of sense.

Boston Red Sox (12-17): 5 out of 5

The Red Sox were destined to take a step back at the plate after losing Alex Bregman in free agency and not making a big splash to replace him, but they’ve been among the worst lineups in baseball this season.

That has already resulted in the firing of manager Alex Cora and hitting coach Peter Fatse, along with a few other assistants, so clearly top brass thought it was time to slam the panic button. Even after a brief three-game winning streak, the damage from Boston’s brutal start is hard to ignore. And after how a few players spoke about the state of things after Cora’s dismissal, it looks like this could be a tough few months in Beantown.

Like the Mets, there’s just not a lot of slug with this Red Sox team at the moment, even with some big bats like Roman Anthony and Trevor Story in the mix. The pitching was supposed to be a strength, too, which could have negated some of the lineup’s problems, but even Garrett Crochet is struggling.

There’s talent here, sure, but even if the Sox start to trend toward the right direction, I don’t think the lineup is deep enough for them to do a whole lot when all is said and done. Playing under an interim manager can be a spark — just ask the 2022 Phillies, who made it all the way to a World Series — but usually that kind of move results in a lackluster go of things the rest of the way.

Kansas City Royals (11-17): 5 out of 5

The Royals were my surprise pick to make the postseason this year, and look how smart they’ve made me look. Jokes aside, the only thing funny about the Royals’ start is that there’s nowhere to go but up. The lineup has too many big names to be so poor across the board, with Bobby Witt Jr., Maikel Garcia, Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino completely underperforming to date.

Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha have been excellent atop the rotation, but Cole Ragans doesn’t look anywhere near his 2024 form, and Noah Cameron is struggling, too. The bullpen has been lackluster as well outside of Eli Morgan and Daniel Lynch.

If you want a glass-half-full approach, the Royals have hit rock bottom and can move forward in a weak AL Central. If you want the glass-half-empty approach, they’re just not as good as we thought, and that surprising 2024 playoff run was just that — a surprise. It’s trending toward the latter right now.