2026 NFL expert playoff predictions: Division winners, Wild Card teams and Super Bowl pick

September is here, which means it’s time for football. Last year’s NFL season did not disappoint, with surprise teams like the Seahawks and Patriots emerging to meet in the Super Bowl, which Seattle won.

It’s been a busy and long offseason, and we’re finally ready for some regular season action. Ahead of the first games of the year, we’re going to share our division winner and wild card picks for the 2026 NFL season, as well as our Super Bowl prediction. 

AFC playoff team expert picks

The AFC feels deeper than it did a year ago, with a few contenders getting squeezed out of the playoff picture. Here’s how I see the seven spots shaking out.

AFC East winner: Bills

I do have questions about the Bills firing Sean McDermott just to promote Joe Brady from offensive coordinator to head coach, but the overall talent level is very strong in Buffalo, headlined by 2024 MVP Josh Allen. This is a pick centered around both the Bills’ strong roster but also not feeling too strongly about any of the other three teams in the division. That includes the reigning AFC East and AFC champion Patriots, who benefited from a very light schedule last year. Even with a first-time head coach, I like Buffalo to win the division relatively pain-free so long as the defense is at least average.

AFC North winner: Ravens

Another first-time head coach to win his division? You bet. The Ravens also have a very good roster headlined by an MVP winner at quarterback, and while John Harbaugh did great things in Baltimore, the Ravens underperformed relative to expectations too many times in recent years, losing many games the team appeared to have in the bag in the fourth quarter. How Jesse Minter, a former Ravens assistant, operates the squad is a big question mark, but the team has the division’s best roster. They're a far more complete team than Cincinnati or Pittsburgh, the latter of which has a new head coach and a 42-year-old quarterback. And no, Cleveland winning this is not at all a consideration in my mind, but thanks for asking!

AFC South winner: Texans

It’s weird that the Texans and DeMeco Ryans both seem underrated. Ryans in particular is one of the best head coaches in football, leading a Texans team that was a disaster before his arrival to three straight 10+ win seasons, playoff appearances and trips to the Divisional Round. When you look at Houston, you start with the defense, which has a strong case for being the NFL’s best. There’s little reason to doubt that group. The offense has question marks but also big upside. C.J. Stroud must rekindle some of his Year 1 magic if he’s to secure a long-term payday, and he has an elite WR1 in Nico Collins to throw to. The weapons after Collins are a bit up in the air, but there are quite a few breakout candidates. The addition of David Montgomery may be a short-term fix at running back, but the Texans figure to be much better in the run game than they were a year ago when Woody Marks and a now-retired Nick Chubb got the bulk of the carries. If Stroud returns to being even a fringe top-10 QB, this very well could be the best team in the AFC.

AFC West winner: Broncos 

As I’ll explain shortly, I’m higher on Kansas City than Denver. That being said, it’s unclear how Patrick Mahomes looks early this year, and even when he was healthy, the offense underperformed last year and really in recent years as well. I think Denver will take advantage of the landscape yet again to win the division for a second straight year, even with a first-place schedule. The Broncos have a loaded defense, and while I think Bo Nix is who he is and has peaked already, he operates this offense at a high level and has a shiny new toy in Jaylen Waddle to help elevate the offense. The X-factor here is first-year play-caller Davis Webb as Sean Payton has surprisingly handed over play-calling duties. 

AFC Wild Card teams: Chiefs, Chargers, Jaguars

The Chiefs feel primed for a comeback so long as Mahomes stays healthy. There are questions about the offense, Mahomes’ health and the quality of pass catchers, but it’s hard to doubt Andy Reid and Co. Plus, the team dished out big bucks for Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III to lead a run game that has lagged behind the last few years. Mahomes has weapons to work with in the passing game, the offensive line is good, and on the other side of the ball, the defense should be a top-10 unit behind one of the game’s best play callers in Steve Spagnuolo. 

It’s easy to poke fun at the Chargers given their perennial playoff faceplants and the “If Man” reputation Justin Herbert has acquired, but this is a deep roster on both sides of the ball and Jim Harbaugh is a great head coach who seems to always find ways to field a great defense and run game while winning games. The addition of Mike McDaniel as offensive coordinator may wind up being the best move any team made this offseason. He’s a great play caller, and his run game prowess should unlock second-year running back Omarion Hampton, who shined as a featured back at times last year, and take pressure off Herbert. Additionally, an O-line that was decimated by injury all of last year should be improved with the return of Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt as bookend tackles. Replacing new Ravens head coach Jesse Minter as Chargers defensive coordinator is Chris O’Leary, who joins L.A. from the college ranks. There’s a ton of defensive talent to make the Chargers a potent threat on that side of the ball. The Chargers should be in the postseason again, and heck, if L.A. winds up winning the West, I wouldn’t be surprised. 

For the third and final spot, I give the nod to the Jaguars over the Bengals and Patriots. The roster is very sound, the coach has silenced a lot of doubters, the schedule is manageable and the team has a mix of a strong floor and level of balance few teams have. Jacksonville’s defense wowed me last year and should be a capable group once again, while Trevor Lawrence leads an offense that has a deep group of pass catchers. The question is whether the team can replace Travis Etienne Jr. at running back, but Coen got a lot out of other backs last season, namely Bhayshul Tuten.

As for the Bengals, I still question Cincy’s defense after such a rough showing last year, even after making some big splashy moves on that side of the ball this offseason like Dexter Lawrence. I have more faith in Liam Coen than Zac Taylor at this point in time, even considering the latter has led this group to a Super Bowl before. There’s no denying the quartet of Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Chase Brown is dangerous on offense, but a suspect O-line and defense with plenty of holes leads me to fade the Bengals once again in what should be a deeper AFC than it was last year. 

And it may be strange to fade the reigning AFC champs, but I just don’t see New England replicating its success again – at least not this year. The Patriots benefited from maybe the easiest path to a Super Bowl we’ve ever seen, and they were dominated in that matchup by Seattle, exposing many holes, especially on the offensive line. How Drake Maye bounces back from that poor performance will be a key storyline to monitor. The addition of receiver A.J. Brown will help the Pats’ pass game as he’s reunited with head coach Mike Vrabel, but he’s also quick to get frustrated if he doesn’t get a ton of looks. Can the Pats feed Brown without undermining the rest of the offense? The offensive line was awful in the Super Bowl, and it’s largely the same group that we saw struggle in February. There’s no last-place schedule to take advantage of this season, and Vrabel is coming off an offseason of off-field drama. If New England makes the playoffs, I wouldn’t be shocked, but I like the makeup of quite a few other teams more than the Patriots right now. 

NFC playoff team expert picks

The NFC has plenty of heavyweights of its own, including a handful of teams capable of making a Super Bowl run. Here are my seven playoff picks from the conference.

NFC East winner: Eagles

There is a part of me that’s tempted to put the Cowboys here as they have an elite offense and just need a fringe-average defense to contend, but I feel like the Eagles learned a lot about what not to do last year, and they still won 11 games and made the postseason. It feels like Nick Sirianni is on the hot seat every other year and responds accordingly, so I’m not going to doubt him, Howie Roseman and the rest of the Philly braintrust right now. Sean Mannion is the new offensive coordinator in Philly, and while he’s young and unproven, anything should be better than the run, run, deep shot offense the team ran in 2025. 

I like Jalen Hurts to bounce back and for DeVonta Smith to be a clear top-10 receiver in 2026 now that he’s out of A.J. Brown’s shadow. And speaking of Brown, the team will certainly miss his talent, but I do think there’s something to be said for moving on from a guy who was that vocal about his role and lack of targets. Plus, first-round receiver Makai Lemon is an intriguing playmaker who should be a clear No. 2 option for Hurts in the passing game. Saquon Barkley should also have a better 2026 behind what’s still a very good offensive line. The defense is pretty dang good, too, with a proven play caller in Vic Fangio pulling the strings for a group that has one of the league’s best secondaries. The offense was poor last year yet the team still won 11 games and the NFC East. I think the Eagles will be much better off in 2026.

NFC North winner: Lions

Doubt the Lions at your own risk. Detroit made the playoffs in 2023 and 2024 but missed out last year while going 9-8. The offense was one of the league’s best, and the defense was average. Five of the team’s losses were by one score as well. Now, Detroit gets a last-place schedule for 2026 that the team should take advantage of. Jared Goff leads an offense that, along with Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta and Jameson Williams, should be high-scoring again. All signs point to the Lions rebounding very well in 2026, and Dan Campbell is not one to doubt. 

NFC South winner: Buccaneers

The NFC South should be more competitive this year after the Panthers won the division at 8-9, but every team has its warts. The Buccaneers, in my opinion, have the best overall roster. 

I’m still skeptical about Bryce Young in Carolina, the Falcons’ QB battle is injury-plagued and uninspiring and the Saints still feel a year away from real contention. Now make no mistake – the Bucs have flaws, and they’re under more pressure than any other team in the division. Baker Mayfield has yet to sign an extension and is entering the last year of his contract, Bucky Irving missed a lot of time last year after a standout rookie campaign and the team will need its receiving corps to step up with Mike Evans now in San Francisco.  The defense is also set to be a solid group, though star nose tackle Vita Vea requested a trade this offseason. This feels like a bit of a make-or-break year for head coach Todd Bowles, and at least right now, the Bucs feel like the best situation in that division. They started 6-2 last year, beating the Seahawks, 49ers and Texans before going just 2-7 the rest of the way, so we’ve seen recent flashes of greatness. 

NFC West winner: Rams

The Super Bowl favorites, the Rams went all-in this offseason, mortgaging its early-round capital for star cornerback Trent McDuffie and reigning Defensive Player of the Year edge rusher Myles Garrett. Those two will help a defense that, along with poor special teams, cost the Rams key games, namely the NFC title game to the Seahawks. Oh yeah, and they brought Aaron Donald back from retirement. You know the offense will be elite again with reigning MVP Matthew Stafford, running back Kyren Williams and elite receiver tandem of Puka Nacua and Davante Adams all back in the fold under Sean McVay’s offense. The Rams have the NFL’s best collection of superstars, and even with the reigning Super Bowl champs in their division, it’d be a disappointment if L.A. didn’t win the NFC West. The final three weeks of the year will be very telling as the Rams will play the Seahawks twice over that stretch, including Week 18. 

NFC Wild Card teams: Seahawks, Vikings, 49ers

The Seahawks won last year’s Super Bowl in dominant fashion and were the first team to win the Lombardi Trophy without turning the ball over in the postseason. But still, people are doubting Mike Macdonald’s group. There is some reason for concern with the loss of Super Bowl MVP running back Kenneth Walker III to Kansas City and offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak to the Raiders’ head coaching opening, but the team used a first-round pick on Jadarian Price and their new play caller, Brian Fleury, worked under Kubiak in San Francisco when Sam Darnold was there in 2023. Macdonald called plays for the No. 1 scoring defense last year, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the reigning Offensive Player of the Year and clearly has great rapport with Darnold. Really the big question is the run game as Price and Emmanuel Wilson lead the charge with Walker gone and Zach Charbonnet coming off a torn ACL and not expected to return for at least a few more weeks. I think the Rams will win the West, but Seattle should have one of the best records in the conference and likely earn the No. 5 seed.

I don't really understand why the Vikings are being slept on entering 2026. This is a team that won nine games last year with poor play from J.J. McCarthy, Carson Wentz and Max Brosmer at quarterback. Kyler Murray is polarizing, sure, but he’s a heck of a lot more talented than those three, and the trio of Justin Jefferson, Jauan Jennings and Jordan Addison should give Murray plenty of good looks in what’s been a top-end offense under Kevin O’Connell. Defensively, the Vikings have been great under Brian Flores and should be once again. O’Connell is an elite head coach, and if they won nine games last year, 10 or more is on the table, for sure.  

Injuries are the biggest obstacle for the 49ers, who may miss George Kittle for a bit and will be without Ricky Pearsall for all of 2026, but if they can stay relatively healthy, the 49ers should remain among the NFC’s best. Kyle Shanahan always has his team ready to play, and the talent level in the Bay is extremely high. The 49ers are simply more talented than most of the NFC, and they’re a well-coached group, too. 

As for two 2025 playoff teams I have missing the postseason this year, I’ll look to the NFC North with the Packers and Bears. 

I think the Packers are what they are, and while I think they’ll be good once again, they’re my first team out in these predictions. The team has fizzled out in the first round of the playoffs each of the last two years, and I have a hard time seeing them being better this year, especially with defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley now the new head coach in Miami.

Fading the Bears may be surprising to some, but I have my reasons. First, the kind of late-minute voodoo the team pulled off throughout the season last year is almost impossible to replicate year to year. Caleb Williams didn’t play great in the postseason, and people seem to shrug off that he didn’t even complete 60% of his passes. DJ Moore is gone, so there’s a lot of pressure on youngsters Luther Burden, Colston Loveland and Rome Odunze – all in their second or third season – to be reliable options for Williams. The defense was 23rd in scoring defense last year as well. Ben Johnson is a great coach, don’t get me wrong, but this feels like a clear regression candidate as the team tries to find more stability heading into 2027.

As for the Cowboys, I still worry about the defense. I mean, it was that bad last year. There were moves made to upgrade that side of the ball, especially rookie safety Caleb Downs, but I think Dallas is a year away defensively from giving the team a legit playoff shot unless Philadelphia struggles mightily. 

Super Bowl expert prediction: Lions over Texans

Let’s get weird, shall we? How about two teams that have never been to the big game?

The NFC may very well come down to a new-look Rams squad and the Seahawks, last year’s champs. Those two may also beat the hell out of each other in a potential matchup that takes place before the NFC Championship Game. That could lead to another team taking advantage, and I think the Lions are set to recover nicely after a 9-8 season a year ago.

Detroit’s offense is loaded, the head coach is a proven winner and the defense really wasn’t that bad last year. Five of Detroit’s eight losses last year were by one score. The Lions just lost a bit of their 2023-24 mojo. I think they find it this year with Goff performing like an MVP candidate and Gibbs potentially winning Offensive Player of the Year as he’s no longer handcuffed to David Montgomery. If the Lions basically put up their same offensive and defensive numbers from last year, they should win at least 10 games. The Lions are still very much in their Super Bowl window.

The AFC is hard to pick. The Bills and Ravens should both be very good, but it’s hard to pick a first-time head coach to reach the Super Bowl in his first year. I like the Chargers a lot, but they regularly flame out in the postseason. The Jags are fun, but they’re still a bit too green while I question if Trevor Lawrence has another gear to reach. The Broncos’ best chance, in my opinion, was last year, even with Bo Nix hurt, and the Chiefs need to get the offense on track as even before Mahomes’ injury, that side of the ball wasn’t very good the last two seasons.

So we’ll pick the Texans. The defense is arguably the best in football with elite talent at all levels. Derek Stingley is maybe the NFL’s best cornerback, and Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter make up the league’s best pass-rush duo. That group will keep Houston in each and every game. It really comes down to C.J. Stroud. There’s enough talent around him to be a capable offense, and we saw Stroud look like a future superstar at times during his first two seasons before a head-scratching third year. But still, Houston is a regular 10-game winner under DeMeco Ryans. I’m not ready to give up on Stroud, and if he plays up to his potential, the offense will be potentially a top-10 unit or close to it. Pair that with an elite defense and you have the makings of the team to beat in the AFC.  

This would be an awesome matchup with a high-profile Lions offense facing an elite Texans defense, and the winner would get their first Super Bowl title. We’ll go out on a limb here and pick the Lions to do what many thought they’d do in 2023 and 2024 and win it all. It feels like they’re being slept on far too much this year and, at worst, should be one of the top contenders in the NFC.