2026 NFL expert Week 1 takeaways: Patriots panic, Chiefs are back and Rams hype takes a hit

After months that felt like years of waiting, we had NFL regular-season action back on our TVs with a jam-packed Week 1 slate. The action sure didn’t disappoint, either. Whether it was a Super Bowl rematch, division rivalries or other matchups, there was a bit of everything that happened in the first week of the 2026 season.

Here at SeatGeek, we’re closely following all things football and NFL for the 2026 season. With Week 1 out of the way, here are our top takeaways, some of which may be overreactions – but that’s for you to decide. 

Biggest takeaways (and potential overreactions) from NFL Week 1

Week 1 gave us plenty to react to. Some teams looked exactly how we expected, others raised some immediate red flags and a few may have already changed how we view them heading into the rest of the season.

Patriots showing 2025 was a fluke

The Patriots have one simple goal for 2026: Prove their Super Bowl run was legit. So far, not so good.

The Pats were blown out in the Super Bowl by Seattle in a game that was a mismatch from the start, at least when New England’s offense was on the field. Drake Maye was an MVP runner-up last year, but he hardly played that way in the Super Bowl. That effort did nothing to silence critics who noted that the Patriots likely had the easiest path to a Super Bowl ever. They had the third-easiest strength of schedule based on their 2025 opponents’ 2024 win percentage, and to reach the Super Bowl, they beat a Chargers team with no offensive line, a Texans team in the snow when CJ Stroud threw four interceptions and then a Broncos team that didn’t have Bo Nix in a blizzard. 

Fast forward to 2026, and the Patriots now have the sixth-toughest strength of schedule, and they’re off to an 0-1 start with a 13-10 loss to the Seahawks. 

While Maye had better success moving the ball against Seattle in the first half, it only amounted to one touchdown. The offensive line held up better than it did in the Super Bowl, but again, that didn’t translate to points. 

Instead, Seattle’s defense kept the team in it, and backup quarterback Drew Lock led three scoring drives in the second half and played turnover-free ball in relief of Sam Darnold. Maye, on the other hand, had a fourth quarter to forget, throwing three interceptions, taking three sacks and scoring zero points – a first in NFL history. 

Maye’s interceptions were awful, too, with the worst coming at the end of the game. The Patriots were in field goal range to tie it up with less than 30 seconds remaining, but on third down, Maye was flushed to his right and rather than throwing the ball away, he forced a pass to Mack Hollins that cornerback Josh Jobe picked off. Just inexcusable stuff, really. 

The Patriots were kind of in a can’t-win situation here as you either beat a backup quarterback for your “revenge” game, or you lose to one. Still, you prefer the former over the latter every single time. 

New England will have to get right, and fast. The Pats’ next three games? Home vs. Pittsburgh before road visits to Jacksonville and Buffalo. All three made the playoffs in 2025. After that is a manageable four-game stretch against the Raiders, Jets, Bears and Dolphins, but then the Patriots face the Packers, Lions, Chargers, Bills, Vikings and Chiefs all in a row. They also have the Broncos as their second-to-last game. There will be no benefit of the schedule this year. The Patriots must go out and earn it, and so far, it doesn’t look like their offense is up for the task. 

Rams’ “Super Team” hype gets much-needed reality check

The Rams were probably the NFL’s second-best team last year behind the Seahawks, and adding Myles Garrett and Trent McDuffie to the team naturally is a big boost, but the talk of them being clear Super Bowl favorites as a “Super Team” and potentially going undefeated always seemed farfetched. Well, the undefeated talk died very fast with the team getting embarrassed in Australia. 

The 49ers beat their in-state rivals 27-7 on Thursday (Friday morning in Australia). The Rams opted to fly in roughly 24 hours before kickoff, while the 49ers had been in the country for a week. L.A.’s strategy was clearly a flop, as the team looked completely overwhelmed from the start. Reigning MVP Matthew Stafford threw for 155 yards and a pick in a losing effort, and he was off his game basically all day, missing throws and putting the ball in harm’s way. It was the second-fewest yards he’s passed for as a Ram, and it was Stafford’s first game without a passing touchdown since late in 2024. 

Defensively, McDuffie’s name wasn’t called much, which is often a good sign for a lockdown cornerback, but Garrett was invisible and spent a lot of time on the sideline. Now, he’s on injured reserve after undergoing knee surgery. I’m not worried about the Rams’ offense moving forward unless Stafford is hurt, but their defense was an issue in the NFC Championship Game last year, and it was a problem here. The 49ers ran for 174 yards at 5.8 yards per rush, and they were 7-for-12 on third down. Outside of a bad Brock Purdy interception, there was nothing to get excited about with this Rams defense in Week 1. 

The 49ers deserve a lot of credit for how they handled preparation and this game, but as with the Patriots-Seahawks game, all the focus is on the loser here. The “preseason champs” angle almost never amounts to anything in sports, especially the NFL, and the hype train for the Rams was pretty insane. They very well could be the NFL’s best team and win the Super Bowl this season, but Week 1 hopefully provided fans and analysts alike reason to pump the brakes. We’ll learn a lot about this team over the next month as after hosting the Giants in Week 2, the Rams’ next three games are at Denver, at Philadelphia and then at home against Buffalo.  

Bills topple Texans in thriller, but both teams are winners

There were some awesome games all across Week 1, but even before the action started, the one I had circled – at least for Sunday’s slate – was the Bills visiting the Texans. These are two perennial playoff squads, and there were quite a few storylines to follow here. 

The first was how Josh Allen would look against a defense that has had his number in recent years. The second was how the Bills would operate under new head coach Joe Brady. And the third was how the Texans’ offense would look with a new lead running back and with CJ Stroud entering Year 4 after two straight disappointing campaigns. 

The game was thrilling with eight – yes, eight – lead changes, and the Bills won on the road 36-31. There was non-stop action, and while each offense clearly was playing well, the defenses also made their share of plays, including Buffalo edge rusher Greg Rousseau, who had a game-sealing strip sack with the Texans driving late in the fourth quarter. 

As noted in the title here, I think both teams came out as winners, even if only Buffalo got the win. The Bills put up 36 points and 409 yards on a defense that has given them fits in recent years. Allen got his revenge with four total touchdowns and 357 yards of total offense. The defense has work to do once again, but the offense with Brady in full control of the operation was dynamic, even if it did abandon the run a bit at times. 

As for why I think the Texans came out of this in a good light, it really stems from the offense. Stroud has been criticized for regressing after a standout rookie campaign in 2023, but he looked great here. The Ohio State product tallied 289 total yards and tossed a pair of touchdowns and completed passes to 11 different receivers. Nico Collins looked like a true No. 1, catching seven passes for 75 yards and a score. 

The Texans have lost in the Divisional Round each of the last three years, and they need two things to happen this year – better play from Stroud, and an improved run game. The former appears to be coming to fruition, but the latter is a bit tougher to decide after Week 1. David Montgomery gave the offense a boost and had three total scores, but 60 yards on 20 carries isn’t good enough for a lead back. It’s not all on him, but still. 

Regardless, I feel much better about the state of Houston’s offense than I did a week ago, and Stroud and Co. get a nice matchup next week against the Bengals, who, in my opinion, did not show up well defensively, even while forcing four turnovers against the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay still scored 20 points on offense despite Baker Mayfield holding the football like a hot potato.

Chargers suffer worst loss of Week 1

There are a lot of candidates for the best win of Week 1. I think the answer for the worst loss is simple. 

The Chargers entered the year with a ton of hype, especially on offense. Justin Herbert is insanely talented, Omarion Hampton is a tantalizing lead running back, Ladd McConkey is a stud and the offensive line – beat up beyond comprehension last year – is healthy. The Chargers had a great chance to open the year with a bang against a Cardinals team that some think could be the worst in football this year. Well, L.A. started the year with a whimper instead. 

First, you have to give credit to Arizona. New head coach Mike LaFleur won his first career game, Jacoby Brissett passed for 277 yards and three different receivers had at least five catches and at least 50 yards. Defensively, the Cards held the Chargers to two touchdowns in a 26-14 win. 

But 14 points? Against the Cardinals? Really? 

Herbert had an awful start to his season, passing for just 209 yards with one pick and one touchdown. That was hardly the kind of game I wanted to see from my preseason MVP pick. Hampton had a rushing score, but he averaged 3.6 YPC and lost a fumble. McConkey and new tight end David Njoku were the only L.A. receiving options to post respectable numbers here. 

The Chargers were dominated in basically every aspect of this game. The Cardinals won time of possession 37:31-22:29, the turnover battle 2-0 and outgained the Chargers 393-268. L.A. went 2-for-9 on third down and were 0-for-3 on fourth down. It’s also worth noting the Cardinals had 111 yards of penalties, so the Chargers had their chances to make this more of a game. 

L.A. is still a very talented team and Jim Harbaugh is a great head coach who is hard to bet against. But this is a pretty alarming loss considering what it looked like and who it came against. 

Vikings show why they’re primed to bounce back in 2026

Before the season began, I picked the Vikings to return to the playoffs. They went 9-8 last year despite abysmal quarterback play and made an upgrade there with Kyler Murray coming to town. I love the defense, the weapons on offense and the head coach. After Week 1, I may be even more sold on the Vikings. 

Now to be clear, I also faded the Packers, picking them to miss the playoffs. But still, this was a 39-22 Minnesota win we’re talking about here. What makes it all the more impressive is Murray suffered a concussion in the first quarter, pushing Carson Wentz into action. Wentz did his job, passing for 133 yards and three scores. Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason each ran for a score and Justin Jefferson had 92 yards and two touchdowns through the air. 

Defensively, Brian Flores showed why he’s one of the best in the business. His defense was relentless as usual, making life very difficult for Jordan Love and Co. Love did pass for 387 yards, but he was sacked four times, threw a pick and lost a fumble that set up a Minnesota score. 

Now, a lot of this stems from the Packers imploding. Rather than taking a field goal to make it 25-17, the Packers opted to accept a penalty and go for it on fourth down. The result was a QB sneak Love could not pick up. That took three points off the board and the Vikings scored 22 unanswered to win the game, thanks in large part to two Love turnovers on the following two drives. 

How can you also not love what the Vikings did? Wentz didn’t make mistakes. The defense forced two turnovers and two turnovers on downs – all in the fourth quarter – and Wentz and Co. took full advantage on offense. Minnesota scored 22 points off of a turnover on downs, fumble and interception, and that final turnover on downs sealed the game. 

Now, the hit that caused Murray to miss the rest of the game was ugly, and we all hope he’s OK. Minnesota faces Chicago and Tampa Bay over the next two weeks, and neither team looked good defensively in Week 1. Don’t sleep on the Vikings, even if we’re going to see more Wentz than expected the next week or so. 

Bears are going to be fun again, but that defense is a problem

Speaking of those Bears, I’m one part impressed and one part terrified on their behalf after Week 1. 

Let’s start with the good, which was the offense. Chicago scored 59 points – far and away the most by any team Week 1. The Bears’ offense put up video game numbers, scoring two touchdowns in each quarter. Caleb Williams had 334 total yards and four total touchdowns. D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai rushed for 224 yards on 28 carries with three combined scores. Outside of no touches for tight end Colston Loveland, what more could you want here? The Bears had 552 total yards and went 10-for-14 on third down. 

But that defense – yikes. The Bears won, but they gave up 37 points and 478 yards in the process. If not for three Carolina turnovers, this may have been a very different game. That was kind of the story of the Bears’ season last year – winning close games with a statistically poor defense that was opportunistic and forced a lot of turnovers. But it’s hard not to worry about what this defense is going to go through this year considering the Bears are in a tough NFC North and have a first-place schedule on tap this year. 

The offense being able to win shootouts is all well and good, but the defense gave up the third-most points of the entire Week 1 slate. That’s not going to cut it. The Bears have five teams on their schedule that were in the top 10 in scoring last year, and they also have games against teams that should have better offenses than last year, like the Vikings, Eagles and Buccaneers. The best way I can describe the Bears right now is they look like a late-2010s Big 12 matchup between teams like Oklahoma and Texas Tech where defense is optional. 

Giants are Eagles’ competition in NFC East – not the Cowboys

I was surprised how many people picked the Cowboys to be a playoff team this year. Many even expected them to win the NFC East over the Eagles. I couldn’t get on that train until I knew the defense was fixed, and based on what we saw in Week 1, we’ve still got a long way to go. 

I was hardly impressed with anything Dallas did in its 28-20 loss to the Giants on Sunday Night Football, but I was impressed with New York here. Many pegged the G Men as a playoff sleeper with John Harbaugh taking over, but I was skeptical. I’m still a bit bearish on their overall playoff prospects, but I liked what I saw from them in Week 1. 

The Giants set the tone for this game from the start. Jaxson Dart had 230 yards and three scores, finding new tight end Isaiah Likely twice as he tallied 78 yards. Malik Nabers shined in his return to action with 69 yards, and Cam Skattebo had 81 yards and a score on 18 carries, helping put the game away late. The defense made its plays as well, limiting a very explosive Dallas offense to 244 total yards in what was one of the best defensive performances of the week. 

It’s hard to say whether this game says more about the Giants or Cowboys. Regardless, I think it shows that Harbaugh already has New York as the second-best team in the division. I’m a bit worried about the Eagles’ offense after a rough showing against a bad Commanders defense, and who knows – maybe the Giants can make more noise this year than I ever expected. This was a decisive, thorough and impressive first win for Harbaugh with his new club. 

The Chiefs are back to rule the AFC West

No team benefited more from the Chiefs’ surprising collapse in 2025 than the Broncos, who went 14-3 and made the AFC Championship Game. Naturally, expectations were very high for Denver entering this year, especially after the offseason addition of receiver Jaylen Waddle. On the other hand, it was unclear what to expect from the Chiefs considering the offense really struggled the last few years and Patrick Mahomes is just nine months removed from a torn ACL. 

Well, these AFC West rivals clashed on Monday Night Football to wrap up Week 1, and it wasn’t close. The Chiefs dominated from start to finish, and it sure looks like they’re going to be a force to be reckoned with once again.

Mahomes looked spry and moved very well, rushing for 23 yards and a score. He also passed for 184 yards and two touchdowns against what’s been an elite Denver defense. But the biggest story here was the offseason addition of Kenneth Walker III, the reigning Super Bowl MVP running back. After four years in Seattle, Walker is now the clear lead back in K.C., and all he did was tally 26 touches for 191 total yards and two touchdowns. He was explosive, dominant and showed he’s exactly what the Chiefs have been missing the last few years. 

I never doubted the Chiefs’ defense as Steve Spagnuolo is one of the greatest defensive play callers in NFL history. His defense was incredible on Monday, limiting Denver to 176 total yards and forcing two turnovers while registering four sacks. Rookie first-round cornerback Mansoor Delane picked off a pass on the first drive of the game, which is worth noting. 

From a Broncos lens, this was a disaster. Nix didn’t seem limited by the ankle injury that cost him the start in the AFC title game, but he had no answers for Spags’ defense, completing 17 of 28 passes for 131 yards and one score to two giveaways. The Broncos couldn’t run the ball, either, and had to abandon it early after falling behind. The receiver tandem of Waddle and Courtland Sutton combined for three catches on eight targets for 13 yards. It was hardly a banner day for new offensive play-caller Davis Webb. 

I think the Broncos’ defense will be fine overall, and the secondary and pass rush were more than adequate on Monday. The run defense, however, was abysmal and must get rectified right away. 

If Kansas City has a run game and a healthy and mobile Mahomes as was the case in Week 1, the rest of the pieces are in place for the Chiefs to return to their typical spot atop the AFC hierarchy.