2026 NFL expert awards predictions: Surprising MVP pick and other first-time winners

While every player wants to win the Super Bowl this year, taking home some personal awards is no minor consolation prize should they fall short.

We saw a few first-time winners take home some hardware last year with Matthew Stafford winning MVP for the first time in his career, while Jaxon Smith-Njigba was Offensive Player of the Year. Will we see repeat winners in 2026? Will first-time recipients dominate the awards scene?

2026 NFL expert awards predictions

Before the 2026 NFL season kicks off, here are our picks for several awards, including Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year, Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year and, of course, MVP. 

Offensive Player of the Year: Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions

Gibbs has been an absolute stud for the Lions each of the last three years, and that’s while splitting time and touches with David Montgomery. Montgomery is now in Houston, and while Isiah Pacheco is a solid backup option, he shouldn't eat into Gibbs’ opportunities like Montgomery did the last three years. Gibbs has had 10+ rushing scores with 50+ receptions each of the last three years. He has 49 total touchdowns and is averaging over 1,600 total yards per year. Plus, he just got paid. With no Montgomery on his heels, Gibbs could very well explode for 2,000 total yards with 15+ total touchdowns. The Lions will once again have an elite offense behind one of the best offensive lines in the game, and Gibbs should be the engine that makes this thing go. 

Defensive Player of the Year: Will Anderson Jr., Houston Texans

Edge rushers and defensive linemen have won Defensive Player of the Year five of the last six years and 10 of the last 12. Myles Garrett has won it two of the last three years and just set the NFL single-season sack record, but we’ll look for a big jump from a different edge rusher this year in Houston’s Anderson. The 2023 No. 3 overall pick has had at least 11 sacks each of the last two years as he’s emerged as one of the game’s premier defenders. The Texans could very well have the NFL’s best defense this year. Anderson makes life miserable for opposing quarterbacks, offensive linemen and running backs, and he’s a more than capable DPOY candidate in 2026.

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Jadarian Price, Seattle Seahawks

Seattle ran the ball the third-most times in the NFL last year, and while 4.1 YPC doesn’t jump out, it clearly was good enough as the Seahawks used that run game to get to – and win – the Super Bowl. Lead back Kenneth Walker III is now in Kansas City after splitting time with Zach Charbonnet, who tore his ACL in the Divisional Round and will miss time to start 2026. The Seahawks added Emanuel Wilson in free agency, but he’s more of a No. 2 back. Price, the 32nd overall pick, opens his career with a chance to lead a run game that’s coming off a Super Bowl title. This team wants to run the ball, and why would they ease a running back into the mix after spending a first-round pick on him? The Seahawks will use a committee at running back to a certain extent, but I think Price will get the most snaps and touches overall this year. 

As for other contenders, quarterback Fernando Mendoza will start the year as a backup to Kirk Cousins, which hurts his chances. Jeremiyah Love is playing behind a bad offensive line with a bad QB situation while also potentially losing snaps to veterans like Tyler Allgeier. It’s always hard to tell which rookie wideouts will dominate snap shares, so Carnell Tate (Titans), Makai Lemon (Eagles) and others are tougher picks. We’ll rock with a guy on a contending team who should make an immediate impact. 

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Rueben Bain Jr., Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Bain was arguably the best defender in college football last year, and were it not for having shorter arms, he may have been the first edge rusher taken instead of No. 2 overall pick David Bailey (Jets). Bain enters a great situation and he should be motivated after a draft slide. He will play on a very dangerous Buccaneers defensive line loaded with veterans and young talent alike. Edge rushers make immediate impacts and get counting stats that other defensive spots simply don’t. While someone like Dallas safety Caleb Downs may be the better defender right away, Bain could very well flirt with 10 sacks, which would make him a top DROY contender. This race is very open at this point in time, but I love the fit of Bain and think he’ll make teams regret not taking him.

Comeback Player of the Year: Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

In my eyes, there are really only six candidates for this award, and two of them probably shouldn’t be due to what the “spirit” of the award is. On that front, I don’t think Aaron Donald will be Comeback Player of the Year after coming back to the Rams after two years of retirement, and I don’t think Kyler Murray will take home the hardware just for leaving the Cardinals and playing well in Minnesota. 

As such, the four top candidates are New York receiver Malik Nabers, Washington quarterback Jayden Daniels, Indianapolis quarterback Daniel Jones and our pick, Mahomes in Kansas City. Mahomes will get the most attention of these four, and he’s also the most likely to hit the ground running both in terms of personal statistics and team success. The Chiefs lost their one-score magic last year before losing Mahomes for the last few weeks of the season, but with a revamped running game, an elite coaching staff and an intriguing cast of weapons around him, Mahomes is poised for a solid campaign coming off a torn ACL, and he’s the presumptive favorite for this award given this is Patrick Mahomes we’re talking about here. 

Protector of the Year: Lane Johnson, Philadelphia Eagles

This is a newer award, and the voting process is very different from the other top individual awards. For those who don’t know, a panel of six former offensive linemen vote for this award, which is given to the top offensive lineman in the league. Detroit’s Penei Sewell will get a lot of love here, as will Tampa Bay’s Tristan Wirfs and Kansas City’s Creed Humphrey, but I think Philadelphia’s Johnson will take home the hardware here. Johnson is entering his 14th NFL season, and he’s still an elite right tackle for the Eagles. This is an award Johnson likely could have won in the past had it been around, and I think that sentiment could swing voters assuming Johnson plays at an elite level once again. 

Coach of the Year: Jesse Minter, Baltimore Ravens

There are a lot of great options for this award, and while no one is doubting Baltimore’s talent level, there is something to be said about a first-time head coach leading his team to the playoffs after they missed out. As such, Minter gets my nod here, as the Ravens’ path to an AFC North title and playoff appearance looks pretty clear for the team’s first-year leader. Minter has had a ton of success leading defenses wherever he’s been, and with the Ravens coming off a year where they ranked in the bottom half of the league in yards and points allowed, there’s a lot of room for growth there. Minter is the “safe” pick here, though I’m sure a lot of people will be looking at John Harbaugh in New York. On that front, I still have reservations about the Giants’ overall talent level, and I don’t see them truly competing for a postseason berth like Harbaugh’s old team should. 

MVP: Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

We’ll end with the biggest award the league gives out, and we’ll pick Herbert to take home the hardware. Herbert has been the butt of some jokes over the years, but few quarterbacks have been better since his debut in 2020. He’s huge, has a cannon of an arm, can make plays with his legs and traditionally makes good decisions. The Chargers haven’t done the best job protecting him of late, but he should have his bookend tackles back for 2026, and he gets an intriguing new offensive coordinator in Mike McDaniel who could take Herbert to the next level. The Chargers should have a stronger run game, which will take pressure off Herbert and help in the play-action department. 

Herbert has a strong group of weapons to work with in running back Omarion Hampton, receivers Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston and tight end Oronde Gadsden II along with a healthier offensive line. The usual suspects like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson will enter as top competitors, but I think the Chargers could wind up winning a tough AFC West, which will only help Herbert’s MVP chances.