Who will get the final NL Wild Card spot? Breaking down the top contenders

We’re entering the final week of August, which means in just over a month, the 2026 MLB playoff field will be set. Many division leaders have separated themselves from the pack, but as is the case in the American League, we’ve got a crowded field when it comes to the National League Wild Card race. 

Last week, we broke down the American League Wild Card picture, which is a bit of a weird one considering most teams contending for that third and final spot are under .500. Well, the National League doesn’t have that problem, and this is shaping up to be a year where a few teams in the NL will miss out on the postseason while having better records than their AL counterparts. 

Breaking down the National League Wild Card race

With SeatGeek serving as the Official Ticket Marketplace of MLB, we’re closely monitoring every playoff race, including for the National League Wild Card spots. We’re going to look at the ongoing race and share what we think about each team competing for those playoff positions, as well as which teams we think will ultimately make the postseason.

Current NL Wild Card standings

Here’s a look at the current NL Wild Card standings entering Monday, Aug. 24. Note that the top three teams currently hold Wild Card spots, and the number next to each team’s record is the amount of games up or back a team is of the third and final NL Wild Card position. 

• Chicago Cubs: 75-56, +4.0

• Philadelphia Phillies: 73-58, +2.0

• San Diego Padres: 71-60, +0

• Arizona Diamondbacks: 69-62, -2

• Miami Marlins: 67-64, -4

• St. Louis Cardinals: 66-66, -5.5

• Pittsburgh Pirates: 63-69, -8.5

• Cincinnati Reds: 62-69, -9.0

The two top dogs: Cubs and Phillies

It would be very surprising if the Cubs and Phillies don’t make the postseason. In fact, Chicago has a chance – albeit a small one – at catching the Brewers in the NL Central as the team is six games back, while the Phillies are nipping on the Braves’ heels in the NL East, sitting three games back thanks to a current nine-game winning streak. Should either or both of Philadelphia and Chicago overtake the division lead, I’d fully expect the Braves and/or Brewers to secure a Wild Card spot. 

The Cubs got the starting pitching help they needed at the deadline in Kevin Gausman and Clay Holmes, though Holmes (2.81 ERA) is having a better adjustment period than Gausman (6.19 ERA) in a Chicago uniform. The Cubs’ lineup is elite with MVP contender Pete Crow-Armstrong leading the way, and Alex Bregman has been red-hot of late after a slow start to his Chicago tenure. Chicago has, for better and for worse, been streaky this year, but this is a very complete team that is the best in baseball at scoring runs and one of the best at hitting homers.

As for the Phillies, they’re more top-heavy than the Cubs, but the top-end talent is undeniable. The lineup is led by Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, and Luis Arraez has been a very nice midseason addition as well. The trifecta of Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo is tough to beat, particularly in a short postseason series, and Jhoan Duran is a dominant closer for close games. Philly has a ton of postseason experience, and that’s always important come October. 

Fading fast: Pirates and Reds

The Reds crept back up the standings a hair with a 13-12 month of July, but they’re under .500 in August and just don’t have the firepower to make a sizable enough run to really get back into this race. Cincy is both 24th in runs scored and team ERA, so there’s not enough to write home about. 

As for the Pirates, if you’ve read my work here at the SeatGeek blog this season, you know I’ve been high on them. The talent is certainly there, and the lineup in particular has massively exceeded expectations, but much like Paul Skenes’ fastball velocity, this team is trending in the wrong direction. Pittsburgh has lost three straight and is 10 games under .500 since the start of June. The Pirates got the offensive upgrades they needed this year, but they haven’t been able to fully take advantage.

It’s been a fun story, but it won’t be enough: Marlins and Cardinals

Parity is always an important factor in sports, and it’s more fun when more teams are contending. The Marlins and Cardinals were two teams I didn’t expect much from this season, but each has been able to stay in the fight to this point. 

Miami used a 20-6 month of June to really make the league take notice, but a long losing streak in July has played a large role in the team being 21-24 since the start of July. There’s a lot of talent to like here, namely Otto Lopez, Xavier Edwards, Sandy Alcantara, Eury Perez and Max Meyer (injured list), but the overall talent gap between the Marlins and the other heavy hitters in the NL Wild Card race will likely be their undoing. That being said, things are looking up for this team over the next year or two, which isn’t what I expected to be thinking at this stage of 2026.

As for the Cardinals, many of their young pieces are starting to come into their own. Jordan Walker in particular has impressed all year long, Alec Burleson is a really impressive middle-of-the-order bat and rookie JJ Wetherholt may very well win Rookie of the Year. On the mound, Michael McGreevy has been a breakout star, and the team found a legit closer in All-Star Riley O’Brien. The Cardinals are .500 right now, and that makes sense considering they’re 16th in runs scored and 17th in team ERA. The pitching development alone has been a great story to build upon, and while this year is undoubtedly a success for the Cardinals, it won’t result in a playoff berth. 

The last spot should come down to: Padres and Diamondbacks

It feels like the Padres and Diamondbacks will be the two teams fighting it out over the next month for that final Wild Card spot. San Diego enters this week with a two-game lead over its division rival, and it’s worth noting that these teams finish the year against one another in a three-game set Sept. 25-27 and are 5-5 against each other this season. 

The Padres finally got the offense going after months of ineptitude at the dish. The emergence of former Seattle All-Star Ty France has been an absolute godsend for San Diego, as has Fernando Tatis Jr. getting red hot after a dreadful start to the season. He now has an OPS over .800! The Padres have a capable No. 1 starter in Michael King, and they were aggressive at the deadline in adding Robbie Ray and Casey Mize, two 2025 All-Stars, to the mix. 

Where the Padres really shine is in the bullpen, as the combination of Adrian Morejon, Bradgley Rodriguez, Wandy Peralta and all-world closer Mason Miller is tough to contend with. If the Padres make it to the playoffs and get even decent starting pitching, that bullpen will make them an incredibly tough out. 

As for the Diamondbacks, their offense has some great pieces, namely Corbin Carroll and Gabriel Moreno, while Eduardo Rodriguez has gone from having one of baseball’s worst contracts to being one of the top pitchers in the National League this year. There’s a lot to like here, as the team has some notable pieces who were part of that World Series team in 2023, and Nolan Arenado has been a steady run producer in his first year in the desert. 

The big question is the status of Ketel Marte, who no-showed a game due to a personal matter before then being placed on the injured list with a knee injury. Marte is now at the team’s spring training facility, but he made headlines when he was photographed at a casino during a Diamondbacks game, which it should be noted isn’t illegal or in any violation of team rules. Still, manager Torey Lovullo said it’s not what he would have done, and it’s clear that Marte’s relationship with the team is on the rocks, as it was quite a bit last season. If Marte gets healthy and does what he does, that could give Arizona a big jolt offensively. 

It may feel like a copout to pick the team with the lead, but the Padres, in my mind, are the better and more complete team of the two. Tatis playing like a star is one thing, but if Manny Machado can be a bit more consistent, that spells trouble for opposing pitchers. The rotation should be good, and the bullpen is lights out. Plus, San Diego has been the better team of late at 15-6 in August compared to 11-10 for Arizona since the start of the month. 

The X-factor here, in my opinion, is Corbin Burnes. The Diamondbacks’ rotation has a surprise All-Star in Rodriguez, but that’s an area the team should have addressed this trade deadline and simply didn’t. If Burnes returns with limited restrictions and pitches like we all know he can, that could go a long way in September. Regardless, I think the Padres have a bit more juice and will get it done. But as a baseball fan with no real skin in the game, I hope these teams enter the final series of the year either tied or with one team trailing the other by a single game.