2026 NFL expert power rankings entering Week 4: 49ers take No. 1, Patriots fall to bottom five

We’ve flipped the calendar from September to October, and we have three weeks of data to comb over for all 32 NFL teams. Some teams have shined, others have struggled, some are uninspiring, and a few are doing what we expected them to do – good and bad. 

Three games certainly don’t tell us everything, but they’ve given us enough to start separating the teams that look like legitimate contenders from the ones already raising some major questions.

NFL expert power rankings ahead of Week 4

So how do all 32 teams stack up against one another? Here, we give out our first NFL power rankings of the year, starting with the best of the best and ending with the worst of the rest. 

1: San Francisco 49ers (3-0)

There are a handful of legit picks you could make for No. 1, but for now, we’ll take the 49ers. Their offense has been stellar with 27, 35 and 36 points scored thus far, and they’ve allowed 13 points or less twice, including to the Rams in Week 1. Brock Purdy is on the early shortlist for MVP, Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle have been excellent and Mike Evans has been a welcome addition to the offense. It’s a great roster, and so far, they’ve looked the most complete. 

2: Kansas City Chiefs (3-0)

If you doubted the Chiefs after one down year, shame on you. Sure, Kansas City went 6-11 last year, but the team was in basically every game before Patrick Mahomes got hurt. Things have been great thus far, with the Chiefs blowing out the Broncos and Dolphins and beating the Colts in overtime. Mahomes has been excellent thus far, but the addition of Kenneth Walker III is the biggest story here. Walker has 442 total yards and four scores. Kansas City’s run game has lagged behind even in the team’s Super Bowl seasons. That the offense has been this good and balanced is a very scary sight. 

3: Buffalo Bills (3-0)

The Bills’ offense is tough to top. Josh Allen has 11 touchdowns already, including six on the ground, and that unit is firing on all cylinders as Allen has been the clear best player in football thus far. Buffalo has been able to get past three teams many pegged to be good before the year began, though Houston and L.A. are 0-6 combined. If there’s a concern, it’s defense, which allowed 31 points in both Week 1 and 2. Regardless, the Joe Brady-Josh Allen combination has gotten off to an incredible start, and no defense appears to be safe. 

4: Seattle Seahawks (2-1)

The Seahawks have had an odd start to the year. They took down the Patriots in a Super Bowl rematch with Drew Lock thrust into action and then absolutely destroyed a Cardinals team that’s been pretty tough thus far. But they had three turnovers against the Commanders with Sam Darnold back, resulting in 21 Washington points and a 33-31 loss. Still, being down 3-0 in the turnover bout and the Hawks nearly pulled off a win on the opposite side of the country. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been excellent with six touchdown catches, and the defense overall has been stellar when they’re not playing with short fields. The big question is the run game, which has been inconsistent with Emmanuel Wilson, George Holani and Jadarian Price all juggling carries. 

5: Minnesota Vikings (3-0)

I have the Vikings behind the Seahawks both due to Seattle’s status as reigning champs but also because I have no way to tell what to think of the Vikings’ offense thus far. Kyler Murray got hurt in Week 1, and the defense basically gifted Carson Wentz and Co. 22 points in the fourth quarter. Then, Wentz and the offense had nine points in a 9-3 win in Chicago. And with Murray back for Week 3, the Vikings scored 23 points as he barely completed 50% of his passes. I’m bullish on Murray with this offense and these weapons, but the Vikings’ defense has me all in. Brian Flores is a master at his craft, and no team wants to go against his blitz-heavy play calling. If Murray clicks in this offense, this is potentially the best team in the NFC. 

6: Denver Broncos (2-1)

Perhaps no team has been more battle-tested than the Broncos. After getting blown out by the Chiefs in Week 1, Denver responded with gritty, close wins over the Jags and Rams. The defense still looks very good despite some high point totals in Weeks 1 and 3, and there are some good signs offensively. The big things are getting more consistent play from Bo Nix, who has been up and down but stellar in late situations, and figuring out the run game and which backs deserve more touches. Overall, Denver looks like a very complete and balanced team so far. 

7: Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1)

Speaking of those Jaguars, a low-scoring loss to the Broncos is the only blemish so far. They blew out the Browns in Week 1 and then did the same to the Patriots in Week 3. Parker Washington has proven to be a great go-to guy for Trevor Lawrence, and Bhayshul Tuten has done well as the new lead back. Defensively, Jacksonville is allowing 12 points per game. This is another team that‘s just really rock solid top to bottom, and the Jags are the clear favorites in the AFC South given how the year has started for Houston.

8: Detroit Lions (2-1)

The Lions have scored 31 points in all three games they’ve played this year. Having Jahmyr Gibbs serve as the clear lead back without giving away touches to David Montgomery has worked wonders as he has six total scores and 467 total yards. The defense is a bit of a concern, allowing 30, 41 and 24 points so far this season. The offense can give the Lions a lot of wins, but against more elite competition, the defense has to get right to take Detroit from good to great. 

9: Las Vegas Raiders (3-0)

This is the team that almost certainly will drop the most when we do this exercise next month, but you can’t ignore that the Raiders are 3-0. As such, they have to be in the top 10. How about Kirk Cousins? He’s the only quarterback in the NFL with three touchdown passes in all three games this year. The run game with Ashton Jeanty is still a work in progress but Cousins and the offense have been able to move the ball and score as needed under new head coach Klint Kubiak. The defense was tested for the first time last week and gave up 27 points to the Saints. That unit has the potential to crater a bit, and Vegas plays the Chiefs, Bills, Rams, 49ers, Seahawks and Broncos as six of its next eight games. We’re going to learn whether this has been a flash in the pan very soon. 

10: Baltimore Ravens (2-1)

The Ravens were stellar in Week 1, then had the annual “how did they lose that?” Baltimore loss to the Saints. They got a massive close win over Dallas in Brazil last week, and it looks like the combination of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry isn’t slowing down any time soon. Zay Flowers has also impressed in the two games he’s played. New head coach Jesse Minter still needs his defense to really click after being pretty average thus far, but if that happens, watch out.

11: Chicago Bears (2-1)

What an odd start. The Bears won a track meet over Carolina in Week 1, lost 9-3 to Minnesota in Week 2 and then veteran journeyman Case Keenum powered a 27-7 win over Philadelphia. Yeah, it’s been strange. The Bears’ run game was on another level in Week 1, the defense was great in Weeks 2 and 3, and the team showed it can beat notable competition without Caleb Williams. Winning in impressive fashion is always a telling sign for the strength of your roster, and I really like how Chicago responded to Williams’ absence last week.

12: Los Angeles Rams (1-2)

The preseason champs are 1-2, but they lost to some good teams, so what should we think? The Rams were the early Super Bowl favorites after a busy offseason saw them add Myles Garrett and Trent McDuffie and get Aaron Donald out of retirement. The defense and special teams were big reasons why the team lost the NFC title game last year, so adding those three was supposed to make the Rams the best of the best. Well, L.A. bungled travel plans to Australia in Week 1, and then the team allowed 30 second-half points to Denver in Week 3 to blow that game. The Rams should be fine, but maybe this is just a really good team and not the “super team” they were labeled as. 

13: Cincinnati Bengals (2-1)

No one should doubt the Bengals’ offense. That unit has been great to start 2026, scoring 33, 20 and 27 points. The defense, however, was the Achilles heel last year. Could it improve? It looked like that was the case with the team giving up six points in Week 2 after forcing four turnovers in Week 1, but giving up 30 points to a Steelers offense that looks pretty substandard? I’m not so sure. Now, Cincy looks more competent on that side of the ball this year, which is an improvement. If the Bengals can be average defensively over 17 games, this is a team that wins 10 or more games, especially with how easy of a schedule it has. 

14: Philadelphia Eagles (2-1)

The Eagles have been … fine? They were 2-0, but they barely beat the Commanders and Titans. Then came a 27-7 loss to a third-string quarterback in Chicago. Yeah, it’s a hard team to really pin down. The big question was offense, as that side of the ball was wildly inconsistent last year. With A.J. Brown gone, many felt that group would gel given how vocal he was about not getting targets. Things have once again been up and down, though. Philly is super talented and should win the NFC East once again, but I’m still a bit cautious about the offense based on what’s transpired these first three weeks. 

15: Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1)

The Steelers are an uninspiring 2-1 squad. The offense did put up 30 points last week, but the Bengals’ defense is full of question marks. That came after mustering three points against a bad Patriots side and barely beating a Cooper Rush-led Falcons squad in Week 1. Mike McCarthy is in for Mike Tomlin, but things look pretty much how they have the last few years in Pittsburgh. The Steelers will probably win nine or 10 games, but this looks like a team that’s barely above average, if that. 

16: Cleveland Browns (2-1)

No, I did not think the Browns would be 2-1 so far, thanks for asking. I especially didn’t think that given the Browns were absolutely demolished in Week 1 by Jacksonville. But the Browns took down the Buccaneers and Panthers the last two weeks, and Deshaun Watson has actually played pretty well. Rookie Denzel Boston has been a very nice addition, with Watson finding him for two deep touchdowns. The defense impressed last weekend, holding a dangerous Carolina offense to 18 points after limiting Tampa to 19 in Week 2. I still have doubts about Watson and the roster as a whole, but it’s hard not to be impressed with the Browns and Todd Monken thus far. 

17: New York Giants (2-1)

The Giants were a trendy playoff pick ahead of the year with John Harbaugh coming to town, but a Week 2 injury to Jaxson Dart has pumped those brakes a bit. Dart will miss all of 2026 due to knee surgery, so Jameis Winston is the guy right now and the team traded for J.J. McCarthy to be a backup. The talent is there, and a 2-1 start with wins over Dallas and Tennessee is very nice. But the Giants’ ceiling is severely capped with Dart out, even with playmakers like Cam Skattebo, Malik Nabers and Isaiah Likely on offense. Still, this should be a tough team to play, and it’s one that will be very dangerous when Dart is back next year.

18: Indianapolis Colts (1-2)

The Colts had no answer for the Ravens in Week 1, but they’ve been impressive the last two weeks. Indy forced overtime in a close loss to the Chiefs in Week 2 before knocking off the Texans 19-17 last week for its first win of 2026. Daniel Jones hasn’t looked like the budding star he was early last year before his Achilles injury, as he’s thrown three picks and three touchdown passes. Jonathan Taylor has been dominant, though, with four rushing scores. It’s hard to know what the defense is as it allowed 41 and 33 points in Weeks 1 and 2 and then just 17 to a beat-up Texans offense. That unit is probably bad, so this Colts team as currently constructed is likely going to finish at best 8-9 or 9-8. 

19: Houston Texans (0-3)

I have Houston ranked above nine 1-2 teams. I know, I know. The Texans are 0-3. The offense has scored 23 points total the last two weeks. But Houston scored 31 points in Week 1 against a good Bills team. The difference? Nico Collins missed the last two weeks. He’s due back this week against Dallas, and that may unlock the offense.  The run game, even with the addition of David Montgomery, remains an issue, though. I still have faith in the defense, which has given up 39 points total the last two weeks, and don’t forget – Houston started 0-3 last year and finished 12-5.

20: Dallas Cowboys (1-2)

So much for all that “the defense is fixed” buzz from the offseason. The Cowboys gave up 34 points last week, 28 in Week 1 while failing to get off the field in the second half and still allowed 20 points to Washington in a game where Washington lost Jayden Daniels. The offense is great – no one doubts that side of the ball. But if this is the defense improving after ranking 32nd in points allowed in 2025, the Cowboys are going to watch the postseason from the couch yet again.

21: Atlanta Falcons (1-2)

The Falcons are another tough team to evaluate. The defense has been up and down, allowing 20 points to Pittsburgh, 34 to Carolina and 14 to Green Bay, and the offense had 16 total points in Weeks 1 and 2 before exploding for 35 in Week 3. The difference? The quarterback. Michael Penix Jr. returned from ACL surgery in Week 3 and peppered Drake London for nearly 200 yards. Bijan Robinson had over 200 yards of offense that game. The offense operated at a high level, but how sustainable is it? That’s the big question, but Week 3 was a welcomed sight after how bad the offense looked to begin the year. 

22: New Orleans Saints (1-2)

The Saints are a 2-point conversion away from a 2-1 start, but they lost to Detroit in overtime in Week 1 and fell by eight points to Vegas this past weekend, sandwiching a surprise win over the Ravens in between. Tyler Shough has eight touchdown passes to three picks and is a capable rushing threat, and Chris Olave, Devaughn Vele, Juwan Johnson and Noah Fant are all reliable targets for the young signal-caller. The defense played great in Week 2 against the Ravens, but it’s allowed 31 and 35 points in the other two games. Like the rest of the NFC South, there’s upside and severe issues to fix. 

23: New York Jets (1-2)

The Jets have looked solid – at times better than their 1-2 record. They had no issue with the Titans in Week 1, but they dropped one-score decisions to the Packers and Lions the last two weeks. The defense has allowed less than 20 points per game so far, and Geno Smith is operating the offense at a high level, completing more than 75.5% of his passes in his return to his original team. Breece Hall is dealing with a quad injury that may cost him some time. The defense still has yet to record an interception, a stunning drought that dates back to Week 18 of 2024.  

24: Arizona Cardinals (1-2)

The Cardinals have been a fun team to watch thus far overall. They were outmatched in a blowout loss at home to Seattle in Week 2, but they stunned everyone by beating the Chargers in Week 1 before pushing the 49ers in a 36-30 loss. Jacoby Brissett has a 70.1% completion rate, four touchdowns and 652 yards, Trey McBride has 211 receiving yards and rookie Jeremiyah Love has 204 total yards and a pair of scores. The defense has long been an issue and that doesn’t appear ready to change this year, but there’s a lot to like about the offense. And if things really fall apart, the team has an intriguing rookie quarterback to turn to in Carson Beck ahead of a QB-heavy 2027 NFL Draft.

25: Washington Commanders (1-2)

The Commanders nearly beat the Eagles but fell short in Week 1, and Jayden Daniels’ injury really hurt their chances of a Week 2 win over Dallas. But Washington has maybe the best win of any team this year, beating the Seahawks 33-31 at home. The defense forced three turnovers, which resulted in 21 points, and the Commanders rallied around backup Marcus Mariota, who played great against the reigning champs. The defense has given up 31 or more points the last two weeks, and that side of the ball really limits this team’s ceiling, but Mariota’s outing in Week 3 showed the offense should worry teams all year long. 

26: Carolina Panthers (1-2)

It looked like the Panthers were about to have one of the NFL’s best offenses after scoring 37 and 34 points over the first two weeks, but that side of the ball struggled in a 21-18 loss to the Browns. The offense may be really good at the end of the day, but it’s still hard to tell whether Bryce Young is good or not. I don’t think the Panthers even know that just yet. I like the Panthers’ playmakers on offense, but the defense, even after being better the last two weeks, allowed 59 points in Week 1. That’s hard to forget. 

27: Green Bay Packers (1-2)

Yikes. Few teams have disappointed more than Green Bay so far. The Packers gave up 22 unanswered in a fourth quarter from hell in Week 1, barely beat the Jets in Week 2 and then got manhandled 35-14 by Atlanta at home in Week 3. The Packers have zero run game with Josh Jacobs out, but based on how the O-line works, would a Jacobs return even matter? Jordan Love has thrown for a ton of yards, but with no run game, he’s passed 124 times already and is barely completing 50% of his passes. The defense had no answers for the Falcons and gave up nearly 250 rushing yards. This does not at all look like a team that’s made the playoffs each of the last three years and six of the last seven under Matt LaFleur. At some point, the Packers have to be able to run the football.

28: New England Patriots (1-2)

The Patriots were under heavy scrutiny entering 2026 after taking advantage of perhaps the easiest path to a Super Bowl we’ve ever seen before getting blown out by Seattle in the Big Game. The Pats barely lost to a Drew Lock-led Seahawks team in Week 1, with Drake Maye tossing three picks in the fourth quarter. They beat the Steelers 20-3 in Week 2, but Maye and Co. mustered two field goals in a 35-6 loss to the Jags in Week 3. The Patriots look like they were schedule merchants a year ago, and Maye has one touchdown to six picks after having a 31-8 ratio last year while finishing second in MVP voting. This has been a rather stunning fall from grace early in 2026. 

29: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3)

I liked the Buccaneers the most out of the NFC South before the year began, but it looks like their season may be over already. Four turnovers sunk them in Week 1, they lost 23-19 to the Browns in Week 2 and then lost 23-16 to the Vikings in Week 3. Baker Mayfield dislocated his thumb in Week 3 and will miss time, which is likely going to put the Bucs in an even bigger hole. Little has gone right for Tampa Bay, and Todd Bowles likely is on the hottest seat of any coach in the NFL right now.

30: Los Angeles Chargers (0-3)

Wow. That basically sums up the Chargers right now. Like, who saw it being this bad? L.A.’s offense has scored 44 points this year. Justin Herbert looks like a shell of himself. Omarion Hampton has fumbled twice. The defense is fine, but the offense was supposed to take a step forward this year under new OC Mike McDaniel. Instead, this has been one of the worst offenses in football. A one-score loss to Buffalo is maybe a sign of progress? But the Chargers’ next six games are against the Seahawks, Broncos, Chiefs, Rams, Texans and Ravens. There’s a very real chance the Chargers start the year 0-9. This has been a complete and utter disaster. 

31: Tennessee Titans (0-3)

The Titans’ saving grace is having a better defense than the Dolphins do – that’s about it. Tennessee kept it close against Philly in Week 2, but the Titans lost 12-7 to the Jameis Winston-led Giants in Week 3. They lost by two scores to the Jets in Week 1. Cam Ward has two touchdowns on the year, the run game is weak and the offense is a tough watch. This coaching staff has no ties to Ward, so could this be a do-or-die year for him in Tennessee? The front office that drafted him is still in place, but if there’s not more progress made, Titans fans may be looking at quarterbacks in mock drafts. 

32: Miami Dolphins (0-3)

This was always going to be a trying year for the Dolphins. There’s a new head coach, a new front office and, really, a brand-new roster. No one expected the Dolphins to be good, and if you polled 100 folks on who would have the worst record this season, I feel like Miami would have been the No. 1 choice. So, this start has been bad, but hardly surprising. They’re allowing nearly 29 points per game and have scored no more than 13 per contest this year. Malik Willis is probably not the guy long term, but it’s also hard to judge him given how devoid of talent the team has on offense. Oh, and star running back De’Von Achane is done for the year.