10 biggest questions for the second half of the 2026 MLB season

Baseball is now back after its short All-Star Break, which saw the American League emerge victorious 4-0 over the National League in Philadelphia, and with that all out of the way, the race toward October and the upcoming postseason is officially underway. 

The first half created no shortage of surprises, but the next two months will determine which early breakouts, struggling contenders and unexpected division races actually last.

Biggest questions that will define the second half of the 2026 MLB season

With SeatGeek serving as the Official Ticket Marketplace of MLB, and with the second half of the season now officially underway after this past weekend, we’re diving into our 10 biggest questions for the rest of the 2026 regular season, with some thoughts on divisional and award races, as well as the upcoming trade deadline. 

1. Will the Phillies overtake the Braves in the NL East?

The Phillies looked lost to begin the year, and Rob Thomson was given the boot after a 9-19 start. The Braves, on the other hand, looked unstoppable out of the gates, not only taking control of the NL East, but actually having the best record in MLB at one point while leading baseball in team ERA and runs scored. Atlanta has since cooled off while Philly has been among the best teams in baseball under interim skipper Don Mattingly. I picked Philly to win the division before the year, and I like the team’s short- and long-term prospects better than the Braves’. There’s no reason to change that line of thinking now, especially with how well the Phillies have been playing of late. I’d take the 1-2 punch of Zack Wheeler and Cristopher Sanchez against any other team’s top two starters at this point.  

2. Will any NL surprise team make the playoffs? 

The Mets struggling has been a bit of a surprise, and the Padres have also looked lackluster throughout the year. Those two teams being subpar coupled with some emerging young squads has the NL Wild Card race shaping up to be awfully interesting the rest of the way. The Cubs and Phillies hold the two top spots, and right now, a few teams are jockeying for that third Wild Card position, which is currently held by the Cardinals. 

Also fighting for that spot are the Marlins and Pirates and Nationals, along with the Diamondbacks and still the Padres. The Marlins have been red hot of late and had the league’s top record in June, but they’ve lost six straight. The Cardinals’ pitching has started to click while Jordan Walker has broken out and rookie JJ Wetherholt has shined. The Pirates actually have one of baseball’s more elite offenses. I’d lean towards the Pirates of that group. I think Miami still has too many holes on its roster, I still have a hard time trusting the Cardinals’ overall roster, the Nationals can’t pitch, the Padres can’t hit and the Diamondbacks have been average to below average in basically every category. The Pirates have the best run differential of those teams, and I think at some point their luck will turn and they’ll start to string more wins together. 

3. Will the Yankees leapfrog the Rays?

The Yankees were limping into the All-Star Break before rattling off four straight wins, and the hope is Aaron Judge will return at some point this regular season. Even without Judge, this is still a dangerous Yankees team. With him, I think you’re looking at the top team in the American League. Will that be enough to overtake the Rays in the AL East, though? Tampa Bay has found its old mojo, combining elite pitching with timely offense and really just being a nuisance to play against. Junior Caminero is a legit MVP candidate for his incredible play, and no free-agent pickup has been more of a bargain than Nick Martinez. But still, these are the Yankees we’re talking about, and I’d expect New York to be awfully aggressive on the trade front over the next few weeks.

4. Are the White Sox able to steal the AL Central from the Guardians?

The best story in the American League – and maybe all of baseball – is in the AL Central with the White Sox. After three straight years of 100+ losses, Chicago isn’t just competitive, they look like a clear playoff team in a weak American League this year. A young lineup of Colson Montgomery, Miguel Vargas, Tristan Peters and, of course, Munetaka Murakami is extremely dangerous on a nightly basis, while the Sox have gotten some breakout campaigns on the hill with Sean Burke and Davis Martin. Cleveland always seems to find a way to get things done, though. The Guardians won the Central in epic fashion last year after winning it in 2024, and while their style doesn’t reflect well in the box score, the wins just regularly pile up. This is shaping up to be a battle between young talent and a system that just seems to work. If Jose Ramirez returns and is healthy, I’d give the lean towards the Guardians because they’ve been there and done that, but there’s no denying this White Sox team has some major mojo right now and is arguably the more talented of these two rosters. 

5. Does anyone want to win the AL West?

This division has been ugly. The defending champs, the Mariners, have dealt with a ton of injuries and have had one of baseball’s worst lineups. The Astros, on the other hand, have had a dreadful pitching staff. The Rangers, who lead the division right now, are just a game over .500 and have seen their pitching staff be closer to average than elite like last year when they led baseball in ERA, and while their offensive numbers have improved since 2025, it’s still a well below-average lineup. Still, this appeared to be the Mariners’ division to lose, but their struggles have opened things up, even for an Astros team that looked lost for much of the first half. If Seattle gets and stays healthy, I think it will win the division, but the Rangers are the most complete team in the division at this point. 

6. And by virtue, who wants to make the playoffs in the American League? 

The American League is so poor this year that some of the more disappointing teams in the league actually are totally in the thick of the Wild Card race. Currently, the Red Sox, who have been baseball’s hottest team after a dreadful start to 2026, hold a Wild Card spot, and teams like the Mariners, Orioles, Astros, Twins, Blue Jays and Tigers – all of whom are under .500 – are all within 4.5 games of Seattle for that third and final spot. Every team mentioned has major warts. Heck, some of these teams likely want to sell at the deadline given some of the expiring pieces they have on the roster. But someone has to emerge here, even if they only finish a few games over .500. Your guess is as good as mine given how weird this season has gone. 

7. Can Murakami reclaim Rookie of the Year from McGonigle? 

My preseason pick of Chicago’s Murakami to win AL Rookie of the Year looked like a sure thing after he exploded for 20 home runs in fewer than 60 games. But a hamstring injury sidelined the star first baseman for more than a month, and in the process, it opened the door for others to emerge in the Rookie of the Year race, namely Detroit infielder Kevin McGonigle. McGonigle, like Murakami, made the All-Star team this year. He’s been incredible at just 21 years old, hitting for average, getting on base at a near-.400 clip, scoring runs and doing everything really, really well right out of the gate. McGonigle’s great play coupled with his availability has him as the clear favorite in the Rookie of the Year over Murakami, who returned to action just before the All-Star break. Murakami has some of the best power in the game, though, and if he stays healthy the rest of the way, he could hit 30+ home runs. Will voters be willing to overlook Murakami missing 35 games if his numbers are that good, even with how well McGonigle has played? This could very well be the most interesting award race in the league the rest of the season.

8. Is anyone able to challenge Alvarez for AL MVP?

In more AL award news, Alvarez is the clear favorite in the MVP race given he’s a legit Triple Crown contender. Judge’s injury opened this race up in a major way, and Alvarez is the guy who has taken full advantage. The Astros are just competitive enough to strengthen Alvarez’s case, but is there anyone out there who can enter the race as well? I thought Jose Ramirez could, but his injury has all but eliminated him from contention. Ben Rice is another name I thought could stay in the fight, and he’s certainly worthy of mentioning. If anyone will catch Alvarez right now, I think it’d be Tampa’s Junior Caminero, who’s one of the best young sluggers in the game and should easily clear 40 home runs and 100 RBIs this year. He’s been the biggest offensive force for the first-place Rays, and a few big months could set him up as a worthy adversary for Alvarez, health permitting. 

9. Do second-year hurlers have enough in the tank to win Cy Young awards?

The two frontrunners for Cy Young are second-year hurlers with electric fastballs. Milwaukee’s Jacob Misiorowski has been the best pitcher in both the National League and MLB as a whole, while New York’s Cam Schlittler is the top guy in the AL over Toronto’s Dylan Cease. Misiorowski has been dealing with some arm fatigue of late amid a large workload, while Schlittler had an OPS allowed over .800 in June (though he had a 3.38 ERA that month). Cease is right on Schlittler’s heels as the clear No. 2 guy in the AL right now, while a trio of NL East stars – Cristopher Sanchez, Zack Wheeler and Chris Sale – look like the top competitors to Misiorowski in the National League. The second-year jump is very real, as we’ve seen with Schlittler and Misiorowski, but so, too, is a second-year slump due to increased workload. How these two do down the stretch will be awfully interesting to watch after both right-handers have been incredible thus far. 

10. Who will win the trade deadline? 

We’re still a couple weeks away from the Aug. 3 trade deadline, and there have been some massive names floated as potential trade chips in various rumors and reports. All eyes will be on Detroit after the Tigers struggled mightily in May but have turned things around to get back in the Wild Card race. That’s because two-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal is a pending free agent. The Twins also have a pair of intriguing players in Byron Buxton and Joe Ryan, the Angels will get calls about Mike Trout once again, Freddy Peralta is one of a few intriguing pending free agents on the disappointing Mets, the Royals have some veteran pieces they could be inclined to move, and, of course,  there’s always one or two surprise big names who get dealt. And that’s just the sellers. The deadline is a seller’s market, and a team that leans into that could net some impressive returns and be viewed as a clear deadline winner. 

But the true winners are the buyers, who push their chips in to contend for a postseason and World Series appearance. Can anyone pry Skubal away from Detroit? Will Ryan be a prized addition for a pitcher-needy team like the Cubs? Will an offensive-starved team like Seattle, San Diego or Cleveland swing big for a big bat? Things should really start to heat up and come into focus within the next week.